Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 823334past slate · free
refreshed 199h 3m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 12:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
79°F
humidity 82%
wind
9 mph
out to LF
precip
16%
overcast
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
+0.17 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.17 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_
opener / bulk pattern
PIT: Wilber Dotel opens → bulk: Khristian Curtis· predicted bulk based on 1/13 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Kyle HarrisonLHP · MIL
Wilber DotelRHP · opener · PIT
Khristian CurtisRHP · bulk · PIT
xERA 2026
3.85
3.74
4.55
xwOBA 2026
0.303
0.299
0.327
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.027
-0.002
-0.036
xERA 2025
4.16
—
—
xwOBA 2025
0.316
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.75
2.30
2.80
FIP 25-26
3.95
2.98
4.95
kwERA 25-26
3.02
3.64
5.61
K% 25-26
27.3%
24.0%
12.3%
BB% 25-26
7.4%
9.3%
14.0%
IP 25+26 combined
146.3
35.3
14.0
ERA actual 2026
3.98
4.84
5.14
ERA (L4)
7.27
5.40
8.00
WHIP (L4)
2.08
1.20
1.44
K% (L4)
23.0%
18.5%
7.5%
BB% (L4)
10.3%
3.7%
15.0%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
1.67
3.00
L4 window
08/18→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/04→09/15 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/11 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−5)
105 (+2)
94 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.26 (+1.62)
2.25 (−1.43)
7.23 (+1.39)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.10
0.76
0.71
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.10
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.319
Slurve—+1.10xwOBA 0.243
Changeup—-3.10xwOBA 0.362
home arsenal · BULK Khristian Curtis — PIT
RV/100 0.71
4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.427
Changeup—+0.70xwOBA 0.324
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.810
Σ match
3.104
Σ FRV
+8.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Brice Turang
0.347
0.389
+12.5
2
CF
Luis Lara
0.300
0.334
+0.6
3
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.339
0.373
+7.6
4
1B
Andrew Vaughn
0.334
0.372
-6.1
5
DH
Gary Sánchez
0.341
0.374
-5.3
6
SS
Joey Ortiz
0.300
0.333
+10.7
7
RF
Sal Frelick
0.281
0.325
-2.1
8
C
Bo Naylor
0.296
0.321
-1.3
9
3B
David Hamilton
0.272
0.284
-8.5
home · PIT vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.893
Σ match
2.807
Σ FRV
-2.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.300
0.297
-4.0
2
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.355
0.346
+1.7
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.355
0.352
-3.6
4
1B
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.344
0.309
-0.0
5
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.323
0.331
+11.5
6
DH
Nick Gonzales
0.327
0.317
-10.0
7
RF
Ronny Simon
0.317
0.313
+0.1
8
3B
Jared Triolo
0.287
0.283
-0.1
9
C
Henry Davis
0.285
0.259
+2.5
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
Bo Naylor
FRV-1.3
framing-0.3
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.0
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.5
framing-0.1
blocking+0.7
throwing+1.9
MIL · Kyle Harrison
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs Cincinnati Reds · 0.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
109(+4)
100
Location+
112
90(-22)
105
Pitching+
114
92(-23)
104
botStf
57
53(-4)
53
botCmd
56
50(-6)
50
botOvr
60
56(-4)
52
SIERA
3.63
—
5.26
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.77
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Khristian Curtis
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs Chicago Cubs · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
98(+7)
94
Location+
89
75(-14)
79
Pitching+
87
76(-11)
78
botStf
55
54(-1)
55
botCmd
46
41(-5)
43
botOvr
47
45(-2)
45
SIERA
5.84
8.12(+2.28)
7.23
Last 3 outings: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.54
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.45]
0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.06)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
11
4 MIL · 7 PIT
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIL
4 R
9H · 1HR · 6BB · 9K · 21LOB
OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.371 · K% 21.4
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 6.3 IP · 5 arms
PIT
7 R
7H · 1HR · 5BB · 11K · 12LOB
OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.419 · K% 28.2
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 7.0 IP · 6 arms
MIL · standout lines
big nights
Bo Naylor (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
Luis Lara (CF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Jackson Chourio (LF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Andrew Vaughn (1B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
PIT · standout lines
big nights
Henry Davis (C) · 1-2 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
Rafael Flores Jr. (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K