Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 822924past slate · free
refreshed 199h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
86°F
humidity 60%
wind
12 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
mostly clear
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.43 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.43 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jeffrey SpringsLHP · ATH
Drew RasmussenRHP · TB
xERA 2026
4.86
3.09
xwOBA 2026
0.337
0.273
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.028
-0.027
xERA 2025
4.30
3.48
xwOBA 2025
0.321
0.291
Outs/TB 25-26
1.70
2.56
FIP 25-26
5.23
3.33
kwERA 25-26
4.16
3.19
K% 25-26
18.6%
23.7%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
5.3%
IP 25+26 combined
306.0
310.3
ERA actual 2026
5.93
2.81
ERA (L4)
5.48
1.73
WHIP (L4)
1.31
0.77
K% (L4)
17.8%
22.9%
BB% (L4)
7.8%
2.1%
IP/gm (L4)
5.33
6.50
L4 window
08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (−2)
113 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.42 (−0.72)
3.38 (+0.00)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.27
1.44
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -1.27
4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.362
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.265
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.383
Sweeper—-1.80xwOBA 0.399
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.248
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 1.44
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.288
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.281
Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.258
Changeup—+2.00xwOBA 0.202
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.401
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.424
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.613
Σ match
2.439
Σ FRV
-21.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Henry Bolte
0.318
0.285
+4.4
2
DH
Jeff McNeil
0.303
0.277
-1.6
3
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.321
0.291
-10.0
4
3B
Zack Gelof
0.311
0.290
+0.3
5
2B
Donovan Walton
0.332
0.313
-7.0
6
1B
Tommy White
0.296
0.273
-4.8
7
SS
Alika Williams
0.243
0.233
+2.7
8
C
Jonah Heim
0.287
0.257
-6.3
9
CF
Denzel Clarke
0.202
0.220
+1.2
home · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.796
Σ match
3.049
Σ FRV
-1.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.350
0.389
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.347
0.365
-0.4
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.413
-7.9
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.316
0.334
+2.8
5
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.266
0.274
+10.2
6
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.265
0.291
+3.7
7
RF
Ryan Vilade
0.331
0.374
-2.6
8
2B
Richie Palacios
0.309
0.356
-4.0
9
SS
Taylor Walls
0.249
0.253
-2.8
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Jonah Heim
FRV-6.3
framing-1.2
blocking-2.5
throwing-1.6
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+2.8
framing+0.6
blocking-0.6
throwing+1.9
ATH · Jeffrey Springs
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs SEA · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
88(-8)
94
Location+
100
104(+4)
111
Pitching+
97
97(-0)
105
botStf
46
48(+2)
48
botCmd
54
53(-1)
57
botOvr
52
48(-3)
54
SIERA
5.13
6.72(+1.59)
4.42
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.01
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Drew Rasmussen
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs HOU · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
110
116(+6)
113
Location+
107
95(-12)
103
Pitching+
114
113(-1)
115
botStf
54
60(+6)
56
botCmd
57
58(+1)
59
botOvr
60
61(+1)
62
SIERA
3.38
3.36(-0.02)
3.38
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.84
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.