Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BOS @ TEX

Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 822845past slate · free

refreshed 192h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

96°F

humidity 35%

wind

8 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

TEX: Tyler Alexander opens → bulk: Cal Quantrill· predicted bulk based on 2/68 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sonny GrayRHP · BOS	Tyler AlexanderLHP · opener · TEX	Cal QuantrillRHP · bulk · TEX
xERA 2026	3.82	3.14	3.90
xwOBA 2026	0.302	0.275	0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.004	0.021	-0.028
xERA 2025	3.88	4.64	5.77
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.332	0.365
Outs/TB 25-26	1.95	2.03	1.85
FIP 25-26	3.41	3.37	4.60
kwERA 25-26	3.15	3.87	4.06
K% 25-26	24.5%	19.7%	17.5%
BB% 25-26	5.8%	6.9%	6.3%
IP 25+26 combined	337.3	164.3	226.3
ERA actual 2026	2.76	3.38	2.90
ERA (L4)	3.38	1.80	2.88
WHIP (L4)	1.29	0.60	0.76
K% (L4)	23.0%	27.8%	22.8%
BB% (L4)	8.0%	5.6%	3.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	1.25	6.25
L4 window	08/21→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	05/19→07/22 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	08/29→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	105 (+6)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	2.56 (−0.87)	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.62	0.50	0.90

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.62

Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.266
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.191
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.367
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.388
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.389

home arsenal · BULK Cal Quantrill — TEX

RV/100 0.90

Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.286
4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.291
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.430
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.246
Slider—+3.80xwOBA 0.237

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.890

Σ match

2.958

Σ FRV

+27.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Roman Anthony	0.348	0.360	-0.1
2	DH	Jahmai Jones	0.327	0.338	-1.6
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.351	0.348	+4.7
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.377	0.365	+0.6
5	C	Adley Rutschman	0.331	0.348	+11.7
6	SS	Trevor Story	0.248	0.268	-1.2
7	CF	Jarren Duran	0.297	0.318	+4.4
8	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.293	0.292	+6.3
9	2B	Nick Sogard	0.318	0.321	+2.5

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.779

Σ match

2.796

Σ FRV

+14.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	3B	Ezequiel Duran	0.306	0.309	+13.5
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.352	0.344	-1.2
3	DH	Josh Jung	0.347	0.352	-3.7
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.345	0.342	-5.5
5	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.313	+3.3
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.315	0.319	+3.3
7	2B	Nicky Lopez	0.257	0.267	+0.8
8	C	Danny Jansen	0.262	0.276	-3.4
9	CF	Evan Carter	0.279	0.275	+7.7

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+11.7
framing+7.2
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.6

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.4
framing-4.3
blocking+1.7
throwing-0.8

BOS · Sonny Gray

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs KC · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 101 · Location+ 87 · Pitching+ 94 · botStf 54 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 49 · SIERA 3.95

2026-08-26: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 49 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 3.46

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Cal Quantrill

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 48 · botCmd 61 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 4.62

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 44 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 49 · SIERA 4.29

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.46]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.25)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.47]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.68)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.60	32.4	11.0	0.96	34/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	1.96	31.2	3.8	0.97	3/25/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	3.13	33.8	14.8	0.86	4/14/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	3.93	24.1	7.5	0.96	1/7/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.16	17.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.36	26.1	12.1	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.6	8.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.68	31.0	8.6	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.13	17.4	1.4	—	1/0/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.59	29.9	8.7	1.28	30/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.66	17.1	6.0	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	3.93	26.4	13.6	0.85	0/16/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	3.00	20.1	6.7	0.95	4/13/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.25	22.0	16.0	0.89	0/4/1	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.05	21.2	8.1	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.99	27.1	9.4	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.62	19.4	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 BOS · 3 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

4 R

5H · 1HR · 5BB · 6K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

TEX

3 R

4H · 1HR · 4BB · 7K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 21.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 8.0 IP · 7 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Trevor Story (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Roman Anthony (LF) · 0-4 | BB, RBI0-for-4
Nick Sogard (1B) · 0-40-for-4

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Josh Jung (DH) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Ezequiel Duran (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K