Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

MIA @ AZ

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 825031past slate · free

refreshed 216h 13m ago both lineups confirmed

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ryan GustoRHP · MIA	Merrill KellyRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	4.84	6.61
xwOBA 2026	0.336	0.384
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	-0.032
xERA 2025	4.61	4.16
xwOBA 2025	0.331	0.316
Outs/TB 25-26	1.69	1.89
FIP 25-26	4.37	4.52
kwERA 25-26	3.89	4.07
K% 25-26	20.2%	19.2%
BB% 25-26	7.6%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	180.0	336.0
ERA actual 2026	4.14	4.97
ERA (L4)	3.48	5.85
WHIP (L4)	1.60	1.55
K% (L4)	15.2%	14.1%
BB% (L4)	10.9%	10.9%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	5.00
L4 window	08/26→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/18→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.21	-0.69

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.21

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.352
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.359
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.333
Cutter—+1.90xwOBA 0.316
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.363
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.307
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.309

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.69

Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.358
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.464
Cutter—-2.10xwOBA 0.413
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.319
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.309
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.383

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.854

Σ match

3.542

Σ FRV

+18.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.323	0.393	-2.8
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.348	0.425	+0.5
3	SS	Otto Lopez	0.327	0.398	+10.1
4	DH	Griffin Conine	0.366	0.461	-1.4
5	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.294	0.361	+3.9
6	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.309	0.394	+4.5
7	2B	Xavier Edwards	0.313	0.389	-1.8
8	C	Joe Mack	0.291	0.362	+9.2
9	RF	Esteury Ruiz	0.283	0.358	-3.6

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.904

Σ match

3.147

Σ FRV

+24.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.347	0.382	+1.6
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.348	0.376	+4.3
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.361	0.396	+7.2
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.326	0.350	+11.6
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.344	0.365	+5.3
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.292	0.321	+2.6
7	DH	Jesús Sánchez	0.321	0.345	-8.9
8	1B	Pavin Smith	0.250	0.280	+1.3
9	CF	Tim Tawa	0.315	0.331	-1.0

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+9.2
framing+4.8
blocking+0.0
throwing+4.3

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.2
framing+4.8
blocking+1.1
throwing+1.3

MIA · Ryan Gusto

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs LAD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 98 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 49 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 4.28

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 102 · botStf 51 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 4.46

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Merrill Kelly

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs TEX · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 46 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 4.45

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 91 · botStf 49 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 5.40

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.40)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Taylor Clarke (4.10)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.95	24.6	12.7	0.98	3/17/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.20	29.7	10.8	1.06	1/25/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	2.97	23.5	13.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.26	15.8	12.6	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.27	19.0	10.2	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	5.04	15.5	15.5	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	5.06	25.0	6.7	0.87	1/10/5	stable
Bradley Blalock	unknown	LR	4.26	23.1	7.7	—	0/0/0	—
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	5.25	20.0	11.1	—	0/2/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.31	31.6	5.7	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.71	28.5	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.81	19.3	4.6	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.25	25.7	6.2	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.71	16.0	5.2	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.01	21.2	10.2	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.57	32.5	15.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 MIA · 3 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

4 R

10H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.350 · SLGe 0.389 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 4.7 IP · 4 arms

AZ

3 R

10H · 3HR · 2BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.571 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 4-5 | K, RBI4 H · 4 TB
Jakob Marsee (CF) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, BBHR

tough nights

Griffin Conine (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Joe Mack (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Gabriel Moreno (C) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Nolan Arenado (3B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Pavin Smith (1B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Lars Nootbaar (LF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Tim Tawa (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4