Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 824626past slate · free
refreshed 218h 49m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 93%
wind
8 mph
in from CF
precip
12%
overcast
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.31 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.31 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
JR RitchieRHP · ATL
Shota ImanagaLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
5.10
3.85
xwOBA 2026
0.344
0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.020
0.011
xERA 2025
—
4.07
xwOBA 2025
—
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
2.17
1.83
FIP 25-26
5.40
4.77
kwERA 25-26
4.60
3.35
K% 25-26
20.7%
22.2%
BB% 25-26
14.1%
5.1%
IP 25+26 combined
58.0
307.0
ERA actual 2026
4.50
3.88
ERA (L4)
2.89
4.74
WHIP (L4)
1.71
1.37
K% (L4)
21.7%
19.3%
BB% (L4)
13.0%
6.0%
IP/gm (L4)
2.33
4.75
L4 window
07/04→08/02 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (+0)
90 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.18 (+0.30)
4.23 (+0.31)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.44
0.08
away arsenal — ATL
RV/100 -0.44
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—+2.50xwOBA 0.358
4-Seam Fastball—-3.80xwOBA 0.371
Changeup—-2.60xwOBA 0.355
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.430
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.320
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.08
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.321
Split-Finger—+1.10xwOBA 0.237
Sweeper—-2.00xwOBA 0.374
Sinker—-1.40xwOBA 0.391
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.331
away · ATL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.796
Σ match
2.753
Σ FRV
+14.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.361
0.345
-4.4
2
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.365
0.376
+0.0
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.354
0.339
+10.3
4
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.281
0.269
-2.6
5
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.347
+11.2
6
LF
Mauricio Dubón
0.306
0.286
+4.0
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.299
0.290
-1.0
8
C
Sean Murphy
0.265
0.264
-1.6
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.226
0.236
-1.8
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.932
Σ match
3.215
Σ FRV
+55.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.374
0.409
+27.0
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.339
0.378
+7.9
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.331
0.368
+2.2
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.319
0.343
+6.1
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.317
0.358
+5.1
6
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.323
0.351
+8.6
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.328
0.364
-1.8
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.290
0.306
+0.4
9
C
Carson Kelly
0.311
0.337
+0.5
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.6
framing-1.2
blocking+0.7
throwing-1.2
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.5
framing+1.1
blocking+1.6
throwing-2.3
ATL · JR Ritchie
Last outing 2026-08-02 vs WSH · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
89(-5)
94
Location+
97
96(-1)
91
Pitching+
98
91(-7)
92
botStf
51
49(-2)
52
botCmd
50
47(-3)
47
botOvr
49
45(-4)
47
SIERA
4.88
5.31(+0.43)
5.18
Last 3 starts: 2026-06-17 → 2026-08-02. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.64
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Shota Imanaga
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs PIT · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
85(-8)
90
Location+
109
115(+6)
112
Pitching+
102
107(+5)
105
botStf
49
45(-4)
48
botCmd
53
50(-3)
51
botOvr
52
49(-3)
52
SIERA
3.92
4.64(+0.72)
4.23
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.90
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.35R / inningband [0.29–0.41]
0.082 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Victor Mederos (3.87)
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.30)
ATL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Raisel Iglesias
CLOSER
CL
3.41
25.2
7.5
1.04
33/0/29
stable
Dylan Lee
SETUP
SU
2.11
30.0
6.4
0.97
0/30/1
stable
Didier Fuentes
SETUP
SU
2.44
31.5
7.2
1.20
3/17/4
ramping down
Dylan Dodd
SETUP
MR
3.80
26.6
7.9
1.18
1/14/4
ramping down
Brent Suter
OPENER
MR
3.66
20.2
6.9
1.54
0/3/13
stable
Victor Mederos
MR
MR
3.09
21.8
9.0
1.87
1/1/4
ramping up
Owen Murphy
MR
MR
4.59
20.7
6.9
2.22
0/0/2
insufficient data
Ray Kerr
unknown
LR
3.23
19.6
2.0
—
0/1/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.39
23.9
9.2
0.88
3/1/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.92
31.1
13.5
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
4.17
25.1
8.9
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.89
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.06
16.3
7.2
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.00
21.3
10.9
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.56
19.2
7.1
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.30
20.6
10.0
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
12
4 ATL · 8 CHC
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
ATL
4 R
8H · 0HR · 1BB · 9K · 11LOB
OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.343 · K% 25.0
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 8 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms
CHC
8 R
12H · 3HR · 3BB · 8K · 16LOB
OBPe 0.421 · SLGe 0.824 · K% 21.1
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
ATL · standout lines
big nights
Mauricio Dubón (LF) · 2-4 | 3B, 2B, RBI5 TB
tough nights
Drake Baldwin (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Sean Murphy (C) · 0-4 | K, RBI0-for-4
CHC · standout lines
big nights
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 3-4 | 2 HR, 3B, BB2-HR night · 3 H · 11 TB
Alex Bregman (3B) · 3-4 | HR, 3B, 2BHR · 3 H · 9 TB · 4 RBI
tough nights
Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 0-4 | HBP, K, R0-for-4
Michael Busch (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K