Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

LAD @ CIN

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 824467past slate · free

refreshed 218h 55m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

92°F

humidity 48%

wind

4 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

+0.11 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Blake SnellLHP · LAD	Andrew AbbottLHP · CIN
xERA 2026	2.10	5.00
xwOBA 2026	0.225	0.341
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.010	-0.005
xERA 2025	3.28	3.56
xwOBA 2025	0.283	0.294
Outs/TB 25-26	3.06	1.95
FIP 25-26	2.33	4.26
kwERA 25-26	3.02	4.01
K% 25-26	30.2%	19.8%
BB% 25-26	10.3%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	99.0	320.7
ERA actual 2026	1.91	4.78
ERA (L4)	0.79	12.00
WHIP (L4)	1.06	2.07
K% (L4)	34.1%	16.0%
BB% (L4)	11.0%	5.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	3.75
L4 window	08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	122 (+4)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.92 (−0.35)	—
Arsenal RV/100	1.73	-0.45

away arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.73

4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.247
Curveball—+2.30xwOBA 0.141
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.273
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.225

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.45

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.403
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.238
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.290
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.331
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.383

away · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.914

Σ match

3.171

Σ FRV

-2.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.308	0.297	+1.0
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.332	0.349	+6.9
3	C	Will Smith	0.377	0.414	-0.5
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.368	0.395	+1.4
5	DH	Teoscar Hernández	0.336	0.375	-6.1
6	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.303	0.320	+2.2
7	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.331	0.375	-7.0
8	3B	Enrique Hernández	0.281	0.314	-1.1
9	LF	Alex Call	0.278	0.330	+0.7

home · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.806

Σ match

2.112

Σ FRV

-11.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.313	0.224	-1.5
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.375	0.299	+5.1
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.346	0.245	-4.0
4	DH	Tyler Stephenson	0.330	0.243	-7.6
5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.296	0.224	-6.0
6	RF	Juan Brito	0.289	0.242	-1.7
7	LF	JJ Bleday	0.340	0.253	-1.9
8	C	Jose Trevino	0.215	0.163	+3.2
9	2B	Matt McLain	0.302	0.218	+2.6

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-0.5
framing-1.4
blocking+0.5
throwing+0.4

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+3.2
framing+1.6
blocking+1.1
throwing+0.5

LAD · Blake Snell

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs MIA · 5.2 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	118	124(+6)	122
Location+	105	106(+1)	106
Pitching+	118	124(+6)	122
botStf	58	59(+1)	59
botCmd	55	63(+8)	59
botOvr	59	64(+5)	62
SIERA	3.26	2.78(-0.48)	2.92

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 2.30

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Andrew Abbott

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs MIL · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 116 · Pitching+ 107 · botStf 51 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 2.25

2026-08-29: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 96 · Pitching+ 91 · botStf 48 · botCmd 53 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 7.27

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.30–0.50]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Bobby Miller (5.40)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.75)

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.17	32.1	5.9	0.94	22/12/21	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	SU	3.30	30.3	14.0	0.76	3/20/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.32	24.8	9.7	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.45	28.9	8.5	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	4.11	23.1	9.9	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	MR	4.64	28.0	6.5	1.00	1/7/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	15.7	13.4	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Bobby Miller	unknown	MR	4.76	15.4	15.4	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Wrobleski	SP	LR	4.28	20.1	5.6	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.51	24.5	6.3	0.91	23/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	MR	3.55	27.7	15.4	1.04	1/11/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.80	24.1	13.0	0.95	2/19/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.97	19.0	9.2	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	7.00	19.4	14.0	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.66	31.2	13.5	1.24	0/4/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.84	24.5	7.4	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.60	23.1	10.4	1.62	2/3/2	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 LAD · 6 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAD

2 R

7H · 0HR · 8BB · 10K · 27LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.242 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 5 K · relief 7.0 IP · 7 arms

CIN

6 R

13H · 2HR · 2BB · 5K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.460 · SLGe 0.606 · K% 13.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 3-4 | BB, R3 H

tough nights

Tommy Edman (CF) · 0-4 | BB, K, RBI0-for-4
Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Teoscar Hernández (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Dane Myers (CF) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Sal Stewart (1B) · 3-4 | RBI, R, CS3 H
Juan Brito (RF) · 3-3 | RBI3 H