Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 824382past slate · free
refreshed 224h 40m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 76%
wind
7 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
18%
mostly clear
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
-0.04 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Anthony KayLHP · CWS
Parker MessickLHP · CLE
xERA 2026
5.00
3.07
xwOBA 2026
0.341
0.272
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.000
-0.004
xERA 2025
—
3.07
xwOBA 2025
—
0.274
Outs/TB 25-26
1.80
2.30
FIP 25-26
4.81
3.08
kwERA 25-26
4.17
3.10
K% 25-26
18.1%
25.4%
BB% 25-26
7.8%
6.3%
IP 25+26 combined
145.0
212.0
ERA actual 2026
4.53
2.51
ERA (L4)
8.66
2.31
WHIP (L4)
1.64
1.07
K% (L4)
16.1%
27.7%
BB% (L4)
6.9%
7.4%
IP/gm (L4)
4.42
5.83
L4 window
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (−5)
96 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.65 (+0.11)
3.62 (−0.04)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.41
1.14
away arsenal — CWS
RV/100 -0.41
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.322
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.359
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.347
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.434
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.254
Slider—-1.90xwOBA 0.290
home arsenal — CLE
RV/100 1.14
4-Seam Fastball—+2.40xwOBA 0.251
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.209
Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.352
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.323
Slider—-2.10xwOBA 0.392
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.340
away · CWS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.585
Σ match
2.440
Σ FRV
+23.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.296
0.274
+11.4
2
LF
Randal Grichuk
0.334
0.295
-2.0
3
1B
Miguel Vargas
0.380
0.339
-4.2
4
DH
Tommy Pham
0.132
0.244
-0.1
5
C
Kyle Teel
0.321
0.275
-0.5
6
CF
Brenton Doyle
0.235
0.219
-1.9
7
3B
Colson Montgomery
0.302
0.269
+10.2
8
SS
Luisangel Acuña
0.267
0.245
+0.2
9
RF
Tristan Peters
0.318
0.281
+10.1
home · CLE vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.689
Σ match
2.963
Σ FRV
+6.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Steven Kwan
0.324
0.350
+7.1
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.326
0.364
+1.0
3
RF
Jo Adell
0.329
0.370
-8.7
4
DH
Travis Bazzana
0.305
0.337
-2.9
5
1B
David Fry
0.265
0.299
-1.7
6
2B
Angel Genao
0.290
0.321
+0.3
7
C
Austin Hedges
0.276
0.298
-1.8
8
CF
Petey Halpin
0.281
0.296
+2.8
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.293
0.327
+10.6
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-0.5
framing-0.9
blocking-0.8
throwing+1.1
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Hedges
FRV-1.8
framing+1.4
blocking-1.0
throwing-2.2
CWS · Anthony Kay
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs STL · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
98(-6)
99
Location+
104
90(-13)
101
Pitching+
108
101(-7)
103
botStf
54
54(+0)
55
botCmd
53
45(-8)
50
botOvr
55
49(-7)
52
SIERA
4.55
5.41(+0.86)
4.65
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.96
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Parker Messick
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs MIN · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
93(-4)
96
Location+
106
97(-9)
102
Pitching+
105
90(-15)
99
botStf
51
49(-1)
52
botCmd
54
50(-4)
52
botOvr
54
50(-5)
53
SIERA
3.66
4.49(+0.83)
3.62
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.83
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Chris Murphy (3.91)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.06)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
2.87
22.4
8.6
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.76
32.3
8.9
1.33
8/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.08
22.2
6.5
0.98
8/10/8
stable
Chris Murphy
OPENER
MR
4.44
23.4
11.0
1.05
1/1/6
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.79
28.5
15.0
0.91
1/8/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.18
21.8
7.5
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.14
38.6
12.0
—
0/1/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.37
35.0
8.0
1.05
36/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.78
37.4
14.4
0.78
1/24/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.33
25.0
6.9
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.60
22.8
9.1
0.86
1/28/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.14
22.8
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
2.77
40.4
7.7
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.63
25.3
10.8
1.33
0/3/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.03
21.4
4.3
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.61
18.7
7.5
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.