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today's slate

SD @ COL

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 824306past slate · free

refreshed 218h 8m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 50%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

20%

drizzle

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.25 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.25 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robbie RayLHP · SD	Mason AdamsRHP · COL
xERA 2026	4.84	4.97
xwOBA 2026	0.336	0.340
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.021	0.039
xERA 2025	3.71	—
xwOBA 2025	0.300	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.13	1.56
FIP 25-26	4.29	5.66
kwERA 25-26	4.01	3.37
K% 25-26	22.5%	28.6%
BB% 25-26	10.9%	11.7%
IP 25+26 combined	338.7	18.7
ERA actual 2026	3.57	3.38
ERA (L4)	6.27	3.38
WHIP (L4)	1.61	1.45
K% (L4)	18.1%	28.6%
BB% (L4)	15.7%	11.7%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	4.67
L4 window	08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.26	-1.02

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.26

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.377
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.346
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.263
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.402
Curveball—+1.50xwOBA 0.239

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.02

4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.345
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.352
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.223

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.724

Σ match

3.022

Σ FRV

+33.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.378	0.393	+5.0
2	RF	Dustin Harris	0.323	0.334	+0.6
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.335	0.378	+7.1
4	1B	Ty France	0.335	0.343	+9.2
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.349	0.368	+9.4
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.318	0.338	+4.7
7	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.267	0.307	-1.9
8	LF	Samad Taylor	0.301	0.313	-0.4
9	C	Ethan Salas	0.118	0.249	-0.5

home · COL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.615

Σ match

2.776

Σ FRV

-9.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.326	0.343	-0.7
2	2B	Connor Norby	0.308	0.319	-2.5
3	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.314	0.334	+0.8
4	3B	Kyle Karros	0.339	0.361	+0.7
5	DH	Adael Amador	0.266	0.291	+0.6
6	1B	Troy Johnston	0.327	0.348	-3.2
7	RF	Jordan Beck	0.245	0.254	-3.6
8	C	Braxton Fulford	0.210	0.237	-1.9
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.280	0.289	+0.4

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas

FRV-0.5
framing-0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing-0.1

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Braxton Fulford

FRV-1.9
framing-1.6
blocking+0.4
throwing-0.7

SD · Robbie Ray

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs SF · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 66 · Pitching+ 64 · botStf 45 · botCmd 41 · botOvr 36 · SIERA 8.75

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 85 · Pitching+ 85 · botStf 47 · botCmd 43 · botOvr 42 · SIERA 5.92

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Mason Adams

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs DET · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 48 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 2.34

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 102 · botStf 49 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 4.35

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Randy Vásquez (4.41)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.46–0.53]

0.116 R/PA · 0.164 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.73)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.96	48.4	9.3	1.04	37/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.34	30.0	7.2	1.16	3/26/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.51	22.0	8.5	1.40	0/8/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.86	26.4	6.4	1.09	2/15/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	3.92	15.8	7.6	1.17	0/4/14	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.23	26.4	13.4	1.35	1/9/5	ramping down
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.23	23.5	13.6	1.22	0/3/5	stable
Randy Vásquez	SP	LR	4.36	14.9	6.6	4.83	0/2/0	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.74	22.8	10.4	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.56	24.6	12.7	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.30	22.0	13.7	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.48	19.7	13.3	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.65	17.3	6.0	0.86	1/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.49	20.1	11.7	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.57	14.6	9.0	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.93	24.1	14.8	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.29	21.9	8.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 SD · 3 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

9 R

13H · 2HR · 3BB · 7K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.579 · K% 16.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

COL

3 R

4H · 1HR · 4BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Dustin Harris (RF) · 2-4 | 3B, BB, RBI4 TB
Jackson Merrill (CF) · 3-5 | 2 K, R3 H
Ethan Salas (C) · 2-4 | 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (DH) · 0-4 | HBP, K, R0-for-4

COL · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Karros (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Cole Carrigg (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Adael Amador (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Troy Johnston (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K