Baseball Daily

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today's slate

KC @ HOU

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 824140past slate · free

refreshed 218h 48m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 69%

wind

6 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC	Cristian JavierRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.16	4.71
xwOBA 2026	0.314	0.332
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.036	0.013
xERA 2025	4.51	3.28
xwOBA 2025	0.328	0.283
Outs/TB 25-26	2.16	1.92
FIP 25-26	4.29	4.20
kwERA 25-26	4.45	3.87
K% 25-26	16.1%	22.2%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	9.5%
IP 25+26 combined	139.3	92.7
ERA actual 2026	3.52	5.50
ERA (L4)	4.91	3.32
WHIP (L4)	1.25	1.05
K% (L4)	7.8%	34.7%
BB% (L4)	7.8%	9.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	4.75
L4 window	08/18→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/18→09/10 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.98	-0.39

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.98

Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.336
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.311
Slider—+3.00xwOBA 0.225
4-Seam Fastball—-2.90xwOBA 0.431
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.308

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 -0.39

4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.403
Sweeper—-0.50xwOBA 0.195
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.268
Cutter—+2.40xwOBA 0.395

away · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.767

Σ match

2.946

Σ FRV

+15.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.313	0.315	+2.1
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.381	0.405	+16.0
3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.329	0.333	+0.4
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.311	0.347	-9.2
5	2B	Michael Massey	0.308	0.299	+6.0
6	RF	Nick Loftin	0.290	0.313	-0.9
7	CF	John Rave	0.321	0.357	+1.4
8	3B	Josh Rojas	0.217	0.254	-1.0
9	LF	Isaac Collins	0.297	0.322	+0.8

home · HOU vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.805

Σ match

2.857

Σ FRV

-2.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.326	0.326	-3.0
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.444	0.436	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.320	0.321	+1.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.272	0.276	-10.1
5	C	Yainer Diaz	0.301	0.309	-4.5
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.302	0.314	+6.0
7	RF	Cam Smith	0.319	0.324	+2.3
8	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.286	0.293	+4.0
9	LF	Jorge Barrosa	0.235	0.258	+3.8

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+2.1
framing+2.1
blocking-2.3
throwing+2.3

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.5
framing-4.0
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.1

KC · Daniel Lynch IV

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs AZ · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 86 · Pitching+ 83 · botStf 47 · botCmd 42 · botOvr 43 · SIERA 6.39

2026-08-23: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 96 · Pitching+ 96 · botStf 47 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 5.80

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Cristian Javier

Last outing 2026-09-10 vs PHI · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-10. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 115 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 49 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 3.13

2026-08-23: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 100 · Pitching+ 106 · botStf 51 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 2.31

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.50R / inningband [0.44–0.55]

0.117 R/PA · 0.165 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.51]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.29)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	5.03	22.0	11.8	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Lucas Erceg	CLOSER	MR	5.48	15.2	13.7	0.96	12/4/24	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	6.15	15.3	8.2	3.67	0/3/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.01	25.4	8.6	1.06	7/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.78	23.6	13.5	1.27	0/4/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.39	14.3	9.5	1.56	0/1/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.14	20.8	11.5	1.03	1/3/15	stable
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.22	3.4	3.4	—	0/1/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.31	22.0	11.0	—	4/6/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.58	35.5	7.1	0.91	26/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.52	30.3	15.7	0.92	8/15/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.83	21.8	6.3	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	4.16	24.1	10.1	1.68	1/11/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.78	17.4	7.9	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	4.22	33.3	3.3	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.86	22.7	13.4	0.67	0/10/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.43	28.0	15.4	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 KC · 2 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

5 R

8H · 2HR · 7BB · 6K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.429 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

HOU

2 R

8H · 1HR · 2BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

KC · standout lines

big nights

Michael Massey (2B) · 3-5 | HR, K, RBIHR · 3 H
John Rave (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4
Salvador Perez (DH) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 3-4 | 2B3 H · 4 TB
Yainer Diaz (C) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Christian Walker (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K