Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SEA @ LAA

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 823979past slate · free

refreshed 217h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

71°F

humidity 69%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	George KirbyRHP · SEA	Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA
xERA 2026	4.13	5.00
xwOBA 2026	0.313	0.341
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.025	0.007
xERA 2025	3.88	4.48
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.327
Outs/TB 25-26	1.84	1.81
FIP 25-26	3.63	4.21
kwERA 25-26	3.36	3.84
K% 25-26	22.6%	22.6%
BB% 25-26	5.6%	9.6%
IP 25+26 combined	291.3	231.3
ERA actual 2026	4.25	4.75
ERA (L4)	4.62	3.27
WHIP (L4)	1.38	1.36
K% (L4)	19.4%	22.3%
BB% (L4)	5.6%	9.6%
IP/gm (L4)	6.33	5.50
L4 window	08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.35	-0.36

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.35

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.322
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.285
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.289
Curveball—-2.60xwOBA 0.325
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.388
Split-Finger—-6.80xwOBA 0.452

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.36

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.287
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.361
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.336
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.310
Cutter—-4.50xwOBA 0.581

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.890

Σ match

3.069

Σ FRV

-29.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.322	0.336	-7.1
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.346	0.353	-6.9
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.352	0.395	-0.1
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.311	0.323	-4.2
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.336	0.349	-0.3
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.314	0.329	+2.4
7	RF	Taylor Ward	0.335	0.347	-1.6
8	2B	Cole Young	0.314	0.338	-4.5
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.260	0.299	-7.1

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.644

Σ match

2.672

Σ FRV

-6.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.310	0.310	-1.3
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.377	0.382	-3.7
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.315	0.309	+1.9
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.308	0.314	-4.6
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.294	0.292	-2.2
6	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.264	0.257	+1.6
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.289	0.294	+5.3
8	DH	Christian Moore	0.230	0.243	-1.4
9	2B	Adam Frazier	0.257	0.272	-1.4

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-4.2
framing-3.8
blocking+2.4
throwing-2.9

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-2.2
framing-1.9
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.2

SEA · George Kirby

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs ATH · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 117 · Pitching+ 123 · botStf 55 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 64 · SIERA 3.71

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 122 · Pitching+ 124 · botStf 56 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 65 · SIERA 6.23

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Yusei Kikuchi

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs WSH · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 108 · botStf 58 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 61 · SIERA 4.38

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 100 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 54 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 3.56

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.48]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.37)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.16	37.4	10.0	0.93	27/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.99	17.9	6.7	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.15	22.6	8.5	0.82	1/21/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.67	22.9	7.9	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.68	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.81	24.6	12.7	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.57	19.7	7.5	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	25.9	8.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.33	20.8	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	SU	4.75	23.2	13.6	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.50	28.0	5.3	0.56	0/8/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.86	27.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.93	20.2	7.4	1.61	3/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.82	24.7	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.09	27.8	16.7	—	5/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.45	19.7	1.6	—	0/3/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.97	22.9	14.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.06	30.2	7.9	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 SEA · 2 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

7 R

9H · 0HR · 7BB · 8K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

LAA

2 R

10H · 0HR · 5BB · 11K · 28LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 4.7 IP · 3 arms

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Taylor Ward (RF) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Cole Young (2B) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Denzer Guzman (3B) · 4-5 | R4 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Wade Meckler (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Moore (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K