Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 823655past slate · free
refreshed 223h 11m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Target Field
gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
71°F
humidity 48%
wind
6 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
MIN
open · HP→CF 73°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Carlos RodónLHP · NYY
Zebby MatthewsRHP · MIN
xERA 2026
3.77
4.65
xwOBA 2026
0.300
0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.037
0.002
xERA 2025
3.33
4.67
xwOBA 2025
0.285
0.333
Outs/TB 25-26
2.68
1.69
FIP 25-26
3.72
4.50
kwERA 25-26
3.48
3.64
K% 25-26
26.0%
21.8%
BB% 25-26
10.0%
7.2%
IP 25+26 combined
265.7
198.7
ERA actual 2026
2.94
4.98
ERA (L4)
2.25
4.37
WHIP (L4)
0.85
1.01
K% (L4)
27.8%
20.0%
BB% (L4)
8.9%
6.7%
IP/gm (L4)
5.00
5.67
L4 window
08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
108 (+1)
94 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.46 (−1.12)
6.34 (+1.95)
Arsenal RV/100
0.74
-0.26
away arsenal — NYY
RV/100 0.74
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.379
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.237
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.279
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.248
home arsenal — MIN
RV/100 -0.26
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.379
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.250
Changeup—-3.00xwOBA 0.338
Cutter—-1.20xwOBA 0.406
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.195
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.487
away · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.953
Σ match
3.195
Σ FRV
+15.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.375
0.425
-4.2
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.341
0.370
+9.5
3
RF
Aaron Judge
0.399
0.407
-1.1
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.350
0.382
+1.1
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.336
0.360
-2.6
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.275
0.297
-0.5
7
3B
Ryan McMahon
0.299
0.326
+1.1
8
C
Austin Wells
0.287
0.319
+6.7
9
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.291
0.309
+5.1
home · MIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.766
Σ match
2.856
Σ FRV
-15.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.316
0.317
-10.9
2
LF
Austin Martin
0.310
0.311
+2.8
3
C
Ryan Jeffers
0.353
0.333
-4.3
4
DH
Josh Bell
0.334
0.344
-1.0
5
1B
Kody Clemens
0.336
0.325
-2.5
6
3B
Royce Lewis
0.311
0.293
-2.1
7
CF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.488
0.382
+0.3
8
2B
Ryan Kreidler
0.285
0.302
+2.0
9
SS
Ben Ross
0.033
0.249
—
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+6.7
framing+6.2
blocking+2.0
throwing-1.4
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Ryan Jeffers
FRV-4.3
framing-0.5
blocking-0.1
throwing-3.7
NYY · Carlos Rodón
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs NYM · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
112(+5)
108
Location+
87
102(+15)
97
Pitching+
93
107(+14)
100
botStf
55
54(-0)
54
botCmd
46
57(+11)
53
botOvr
50
57(+8)
55
SIERA
4.57
2.21(-2.36)
3.46
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.50
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIN · Zebby Matthews
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs DET · 2.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
91(-4)
94
Location+
102
74(-28)
104
Pitching+
95
69(-26)
99
botStf
48
48(-0)
49
botCmd
56
39(-17)
58
botOvr
52
39(-13)
54
SIERA
4.39
9.07(+4.68)
6.34
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.58
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]
0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.29)
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]
0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.51)
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.60
27.7
6.9
1.10
34/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.29
30.0
7.8
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.71
17.2
11.0
0.91
2/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
6.04
10.8
5.6
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.77
20.8
9.8
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.69
16.7
9.0
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.03
26.1
13.0
—
0/2/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
7.42
13.2
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.47
21.5
12.7
1.12
22/6/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.36
35.0
9.4
0.94
5/20/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.79
21.7
12.7
0.94
1/12/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.32
18.8
11.3
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.22
20.6
8.3
1.31
4/22/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.89
26.0
8.9
1.04
0/6/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
4.16
22.1
4.3
1.00
1/8/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.36
24.5
10.5
1.46
2/1/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.