Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 823576past slate · free
refreshed 217h 44m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 77%
wind
8 mph
out to LF
precip
1%
clear
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
+0.18 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
opener / bulk pattern
NYM: Xzavion Curry opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Chris BassittRHP · BAL
Xzavion CurryRHP · NYM
xERA 2026
5.10
3.43
xwOBA 2026
0.344
0.287
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.012
0.035
xERA 2025
4.16
4.22
xwOBA 2025
0.316
0.318
Outs/TB 25-26
1.80
2.00
FIP 25-26
4.20
5.39
kwERA 25-26
3.88
5.08
K% 25-26
20.3%
14.1%
BB% 25-26
7.6%
11.5%
IP 25+26 combined
260.7
21.3
ERA actual 2026
4.88
3.44
ERA (L4)
4.30
—
WHIP (L4)
1.52
—
K% (L4)
19.4%
—
BB% (L4)
9.7%
—
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
—
L4 window
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+6)
—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.90 (−0.05)
—
Arsenal RV/100
-0.73
0.36
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.73
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.361
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.296
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.384
4-Seam Fastball—-4.00xwOBA 0.408
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.268
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.392
Slider—+2.80xwOBA 0.218
home arsenal · BULK Xzavion Curry — NYM
RV/100 0.36
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.318
Slider—+2.80xwOBA 0.249
Split-Finger—+1.50xwOBA 0.135
Curveball—-6.60xwOBA 0.383
away · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.776
Σ match
2.504
Σ FRV
-7.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.298
0.271
-8.1
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.394
0.342
-3.6
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.318
0.266
+1.3
4
DH
Coby Mayo
0.328
0.292
-2.1
5
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.338
0.285
+1.4
6
C
Samuel Basallo
0.319
0.278
-2.9
7
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.288
0.261
-0.9
8
RF
Rece Hinds
0.179
0.224
-0.3
9
CF
Colton Cowser
0.314
0.285
+8.1
home · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.963
Σ match
3.364
Σ FRV
+9.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.329
0.386
+1.3
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.412
0.466
-4.6
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.328
0.359
-2.3
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.337
0.387
+7.8
5
1B
Jared Young
0.319
0.348
+0.3
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.304
0.360
-8.2
7
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.323
0.356
+5.8
8
DH
Brett Baty
0.312
0.361
+0.2
9
C
Luis Torrens
0.299
0.340
+9.5
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Samuel Basallo
FRV-2.9
framing-5.4
blocking+1.0
throwing+2.1
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Torrens
FRV+9.5
framing+5.6
blocking+1.6
throwing+2.3
BAL · Chris Bassitt
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs TOR · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
108(+12)
102
Location+
99
104(+5)
96
Pitching+
96
106(+10)
96
botStf
46
47(+1)
47
botCmd
54
56(+2)
55
botOvr
52
56(+3)
53
SIERA
4.95
4.88(-0.07)
4.90
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.79
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Xzavion Curry: no recent outing on file.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
8
7 BAL · 1 NYM
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
BAL
7 R
9H · 4HR · 2BB · 11K · 7LOB
OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.657 · K% 29.7
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms
NYM
1 R
7H · 0HR · 1BB · 8K · 11LOB
OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.206 · K% 22.9
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 7 ER · 11 K · relief 6.0 IP · 3 arms
BAL · standout lines
big nights
Pete Alonso (1B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) · 3-4 | HR, 2 2B, KHR · 3 H · 8 TB