Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 823332past slate · free
refreshed 218h 11m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 81%
wind
3 mph
in from CF
precip
24%
clear
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.06 R/Gnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Logan HendersonRHP · MIL
Jared JonesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026
2.61
3.43
xwOBA 2026
0.251
0.287
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.014
0.012
xERA 2025
3.69
—
xwOBA 2025
0.299
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.65
2.02
FIP 25-26
3.13
3.70
kwERA 25-26
2.34
3.05
K% 25-26
30.9%
28.0%
BB% 25-26
5.4%
8.4%
IP 25+26 combined
113.7
85.7
ERA actual 2026
2.34
4.10
ERA (L4)
1.44
2.08
WHIP (L4)
0.56
1.06
K% (L4)
27.3%
31.8%
BB% (L4)
3.4%
10.2%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
5.42
L4 window
08/22→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/10 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−5)
102 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.97 (−0.30)
2.96 (−0.91)
Arsenal RV/100
1.26
0.22
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 1.26
4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.228
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.250
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.308
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.316
home arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.22
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.326
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.240
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.288
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.272
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.965
Σ match
2.725
Σ FRV
+15.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Brice Turang
0.347
0.318
+12.2
2
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.340
0.306
+7.4
3
RF
Jake Bauers
0.379
0.358
-8.4
4
C
William Contreras
0.336
0.297
-3.2
5
DH
Christian Yelich
0.312
0.274
+0.0
6
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.302
0.264
+10.2
7
CF
Luis Lara
0.302
0.305
+1.3
8
1B
Andrew Vaughn
0.334
0.322
-6.1
9
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.313
0.281
+1.7
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.893
Σ match
2.368
Σ FRV
+2.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.301
0.233
-4.2
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.321
0.284
+11.5
3
DH
Bryan Reynolds
0.358
0.296
-3.6
4
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.354
0.298
+1.9
5
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.339
0.266
-0.7
6
1B
Ryan O'Hearn
0.316
0.255
-3.1
7
RF
Ronny Simon
0.308
0.273
+0.1
8
3B
Jacob Gonzalez
0.308
0.238
-1.3
9
LF
Jake Mangum
0.288
0.224
+2.2
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.2
framing-5.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.9
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-0.7
framing+0.9
blocking-0.7
throwing-1.0
MIL · Logan Henderson
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs CHC · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
99(-4)
98
Location+
106
118(+11)
114
Pitching+
106
112(+7)
108
botStf
52
52(-0)
52
botCmd
59
60(+1)
62
botOvr
58
58(+1)
59
SIERA
3.27
2.58(-0.69)
2.97
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.30
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Jared Jones
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs CWS · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
95(-6)
102
Location+
105
99(-6)
108
Pitching+
108
98(-10)
111
botStf
58
55(-2)
58
botCmd
53
51(-2)
55
botOvr
56
54(-2)
58
SIERA
3.87
3.91(+0.04)
2.96
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-10. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.09
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.44]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.13)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.