Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 823004past slate · free
refreshed 224h 34m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 1:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
87°F
humidity 67%
wind
2 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
clear
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
-0.04 R/Gnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Anthony MolinaRHP · SF
Matthew LiberatoreLHP · STL
xERA 2026
4.37
5.07
xwOBA 2026
0.321
0.343
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.002
0.015
xERA 2025
7.44
4.86
xwOBA 2025
0.405
0.339
Outs/TB 25-26
1.32
1.71
FIP 25-26
5.71
4.35
kwERA 25-26
3.88
3.75
K% 25-26
17.0%
21.0%
BB% 25-26
4.4%
7.2%
IP 25+26 combined
57.0
295.0
ERA actual 2026
5.24
5.53
ERA (L4)
5.19
8.84
WHIP (L4)
1.21
1.75
K% (L4)
23.3%
24.1%
BB% (L4)
5.5%
9.2%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
4.58
L4 window
08/25→09/11 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
103 (+3)
95 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.49 (−0.58)
4.91 (+0.77)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.64
-0.79
away arsenal — SF
RV/100 -0.64
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.333
Changeup—-2.10xwOBA 0.371
Curveball—+1.70xwOBA 0.220
Slider—-1.90xwOBA 0.276
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 -0.79
4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.397
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.261
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.245
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.424
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.388
Cutter—-4.80xwOBA 0.379
away · SF vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.507
Σ match
2.807
Σ FRV
-6.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Jonah Cox
0.258
0.276
+1.8
2
1B
Bryce Eldridge
0.359
0.401
+1.9
3
3B
Brett Harris
0.315
0.334
+0.4
4
DH
Jung Hoo Lee
0.316
0.328
-6.8
5
2B
Shay Whitcomb
0.260
0.289
+0.5
6
LF
Turner Hill
0.327
0.349
-0.6
7
C
Andrew Knizner
0.292
0.307
-4.6
8
RF
Scott Bandura
0.120
0.250
-1.1
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.260
0.274
+2.2
home · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.922
Σ match
2.903
Σ FRV
+22.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
JJ Wetherholt
0.351
0.363
+21.0
2
DH
Leo Bernal
0.386
0.367
+0.8
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.376
0.377
+5.7
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.343
0.341
-8.0
5
LF
Joshua Báez
0.312
0.296
-2.6
6
3B
Nolan Gorman
0.276
0.290
+0.3
7
SS
Thomas Saggese
0.321
0.304
-0.2
8
CF
Nathan Church
0.290
0.295
+1.6
9
C
Pedro Pagés
0.267
0.270
+4.4
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Andrew Knizner
FRV-4.6
framing-2.2
blocking-0.9
throwing-1.5
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Pedro Pagés
FRV+4.4
framing+2.7
blocking-0.2
throwing+1.8
SF · Anthony Molina
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs SD · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
104(+4)
103
Location+
107
94(-12)
105
Pitching+
105
101(-4)
106
botStf
50
52(+2)
52
botCmd
52
54(+2)
58
botOvr
52
55(+3)
57
SIERA
4.07
4.77(+0.71)
3.49
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.93
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Matthew Liberatore
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs CWS · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
98(+0)
95
Location+
100
80(-20)
85
Pitching+
96
78(-19)
83
botStf
51
51(+0)
51
botCmd
53
44(-9)
48
botOvr
51
46(-5)
46
SIERA
4.15
6.69(+2.54)
4.91
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.50
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.58]
0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
11
6 SF · 5 STL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
SF
6 R
13H · 1HR · 4BB · 5K · 22LOB
OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.447 · K% 11.6
Their pitching
10.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 7 arms
STL
5 R
5H · 0HR · 7BB · 10K · 19LOB
OBPe 0.273 · SLGe 0.171 · K% 22.7
Their pitching
10.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms
SF · standout lines
big nights
Jonah Cox (2B) · 3-4 | BB, K, RBI3 H
Drew Gilbert (CF) · 1-1 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Andrew Knizner (C) · 3-4 | HBP, RBI, R3 H
tough nights
Jung Hoo Lee (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
STL · standout lines
tough nights
Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K