Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 822926past slate · free
refreshed 218h 53m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 77%
wind
14 mph
in from CF
precip
2%
light drizzle
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.49 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.49 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Brady BassoLHP · ATH
Nick MartinezRHP · TB
xERA 2026
3.72
4.08
xwOBA 2026
0.298
0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.037
-0.023
xERA 2025
4.16
4.04
xwOBA 2025
0.316
0.312
Outs/TB 25-26
1.81
1.94
FIP 25-26
3.41
4.10
kwERA 25-26
4.27
4.08
K% 25-26
16.6%
15.9%
BB% 25-26
7.1%
4.9%
IP 25+26 combined
49.0
332.0
ERA actual 2026
3.86
2.92
ERA (L4)
4.66
2.19
WHIP (L4)
1.55
0.69
K% (L4)
15.9%
16.9%
BB% (L4)
4.5%
2.2%
IP/gm (L4)
2.42
6.17
L4 window
08/18→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/10 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−2)
94 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.77 (+0.41)
4.42 (−0.37)
Arsenal RV/100
0.12
0.94
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 0.12
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.297
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.202
Slider—-1.70xwOBA 0.285
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.440
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.346
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.94
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.338
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.233
Cutter—+2.00xwOBA 0.325
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.328
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.463
Slider—-6.00xwOBA 0.483
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.847
Σ match
2.911
Σ FRV
-29.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Henry Bolte
0.316
0.318
+3.9
2
2B
Jeff McNeil
0.304
0.311
-1.9
3
DH
Shea Langeliers
0.365
0.370
-3.6
4
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.323
0.325
-10.0
5
3B
Zack Gelof
0.311
0.328
+0.2
6
SS
Donovan Walton
0.335
0.357
-7.2
7
1B
Tommy White
0.296
0.297
-4.1
8
LF
Carlos Cortes
0.304
0.305
-7.3
9
C
Brian Serven
0.293
0.300
+0.4
home · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.763
Σ match
2.649
Σ FRV
+11.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.349
0.317
—
2
1B
Ryan Vilade
0.333
0.315
-2.6
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.364
0.366
-8.3
4
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.265
0.252
+10.1
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.265
0.255
+3.7
6
2B
Nick Madrigal
0.290
0.287
+1.4
7
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.336
0.317
+9.3
8
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.286
0.283
-1.5
9
C
Nick Fortes
0.275
0.257
-0.8
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Brian Serven
FRV+0.4
framing-0.8
blocking+1.5
throwing-0.2
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.8
framing-1.2
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.3
ATH · Brady Basso
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs TOR · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
91(-7)
96
Location+
102
98(-3)
93
Pitching+
100
85(-15)
84
botStf
48
44(-4)
46
botCmd
54
54(-0)
52
botOvr
52
48(-4)
48
SIERA
4.36
3.87(-0.49)
4.77
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.12
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Nick Martinez
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs ATL · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
87(-11)
94
Location+
107
111(+4)
110
Pitching+
104
101(-3)
102
botStf
48
42(-5)
46
botCmd
61
68(+6)
63
botOvr
57
61(+5)
59
SIERA
4.80
4.43(-0.37)
4.42
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-10. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.78
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.