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today's slate

BOS @ TEX

Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 822846past slate · free

refreshed 218h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

96°F

humidity 38%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jake BennettLHP · BOS	MacKenzie GoreLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.51	4.02
xwOBA 2026	0.290	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.009	0.010
xERA 2025	—	4.33
xwOBA 2025	—	0.322
Outs/TB 25-26	2.20	1.96
FIP 25-26	3.62	3.75
kwERA 25-26	3.56	3.43
K% 25-26	19.9%	25.8%
BB% 25-26	4.5%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	105.0	321.3
ERA actual 2026	3.69	4.62
ERA (L4)	6.45	7.88
WHIP (L4)	1.30	2.44
K% (L4)	22.8%	12.9%
BB% (L4)	3.3%	16.5%
IP/gm (L4)	5.58	4.00
L4 window	08/14→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/26→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.85	0.26

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.85

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.352
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.209
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.276
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.235
Cutter—-3.00xwOBA 0.396
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.426

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.26

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.317
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.222
Slider—+1.20xwOBA 0.259
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.409
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.359

away · BOS vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.862

Σ match

2.834

Σ FRV

+27.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Roman Anthony	0.349	0.359	-0.1
2	DH	Jahmai Jones	0.330	0.329	-1.6
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.350	0.335	+4.6
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.373	0.367	+0.5
5	C	Adley Rutschman	0.334	0.322	+11.9
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.292	0.294	+6.1
7	SS	Trevor Story	0.249	0.248	-1.2
8	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.314	0.293	+4.2
9	CF	Nate Eaton	0.271	0.286	+2.7

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.843

Σ match

2.675

Σ FRV

+10.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Justin Foscue	0.330	0.307	+2.5
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.351	0.331	-1.4
3	3B	Josh Jung	0.343	0.317	-3.9
4	1B	Jake Burger	0.315	0.316	+3.4
5	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.346	0.316	-5.5
6	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.286	+3.0
7	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.306	0.300	+13.6
8	DH	Elias Díaz	0.271	0.240	+1.6
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.265	0.261	-3.2

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+11.9
framing+7.5
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.6

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.2
framing-4.1
blocking+1.7
throwing-0.8

BOS · Jake Bennett

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs LAA · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 117 · Pitching+ 109 · botStf 45 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 2.50

2026-08-23: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 122 · Pitching+ 121 · botStf 51 · botCmd 72 · botOvr 67 · SIERA 4.14

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · MacKenzie Gore

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs AZ · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 90 · Location+ 101 · Pitching+ 98 · botStf 48 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 6.95

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 48 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 5.10

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.46]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.25)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.48]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.68)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.60	32.4	11.0	0.96	34/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	1.96	31.2	3.8	0.97	3/25/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	3.05	34.3	14.7	0.86	4/14/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	3.98	24.2	7.6	0.96	1/7/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.15	17.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.36	26.1	12.1	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.6	8.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.68	31.0	8.6	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.19	19.0	1.6	—	1/0/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.59	29.9	8.7	1.28	30/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.75	16.4	6.1	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	3.93	26.4	13.6	0.85	0/16/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	3.00	20.1	6.7	0.95	4/13/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.25	22.0	16.0	0.89	0/4/1	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.05	21.2	8.1	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.99	27.1	9.4	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.62	19.4	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 BOS · 7 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

3 R

3H · 1HR · 3BB · 3K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.207 · K% 9.1

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

TEX

7 R

13H · 0HR · 2BB · 9K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 22.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Willson Contreras (1B) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 0-4 | R0-for-4
Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-40-for-4

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Josh Jung (3B) · 3-5 | 2 2B, R3 H · 5 TB