Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 822763past slate · free
refreshed 223h 46m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 3:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
75°F
humidity 73%
wind
2 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Keider MonteroRHP · DET
Max ScherzerRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
3.56
4.43
xwOBA 2026
0.292
0.323
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.017
0.013
xERA 2025
4.64
4.64
xwOBA 2025
0.332
0.332
Outs/TB 25-26
2.03
1.63
FIP 25-26
4.40
5.26
kwERA 25-26
4.12
3.88
K% 25-26
17.3%
20.4%
BB% 25-26
6.6%
7.8%
IP 25+26 combined
237.7
152.7
ERA actual 2026
3.55
6.38
ERA (L4)
5.89
4.37
WHIP (L4)
1.25
1.10
K% (L4)
15.4%
20.4%
BB% (L4)
6.4%
8.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.58
5.67
L4 window
08/18→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
88 (−7)
96 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.55 (+1.15)
4.71 (−0.84)
Arsenal RV/100
0.98
-0.41
away arsenal — DET
RV/100 0.98
4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.329
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.232
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.326
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.229
home arsenal — TOR
RV/100 -0.41
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.339
Slider—-4.50xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.252
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.289
Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.373
away · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.971
Σ match
3.113
Σ FRV
-8.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Kevin McGonigle
0.356
0.382
-0.3
2
2B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.300
0.318
-9.1
3
DH
Colt Keith
0.335
0.347
-1.7
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.374
0.396
-5.7
5
C
Dillon Dingler
0.339
0.354
+12.5
6
CF
Max Clark
0.316
0.321
+2.5
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.310
0.328
-6.3
8
RF
Brett Callahan
0.292
0.311
-0.7
9
SS
John Peck
0.349
0.357
+0.7
home · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.710
Σ match
2.559
Σ FRV
+23.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.305
0.295
+3.2
2
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.285
0.265
+6.9
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.336
0.317
+6.9
4
DH
George Springer
0.307
0.288
-0.3
5
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.330
0.314
-3.1
6
2B
Josh Smith
0.282
0.269
-3.5
7
SS
Ernie Clement
0.262
0.247
-2.9
8
C
Brandon Valenzuela
0.307
0.283
+11.5
9
LF
Myles Straw
0.296
0.281
+4.7
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+12.5
framing+7.0
blocking+2.9
throwing+2.6
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Brandon Valenzuela
FRV+11.5
framing+7.7
blocking-0.7
throwing+4.7
DET · Keider Montero
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs MIN · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
85(-10)
88
Location+
101
88(-13)
103
Pitching+
95
78(-18)
94
botStf
50
47(-3)
48
botCmd
56
37(-19)
53
botOvr
54
35(-19)
50
SIERA
4.40
7.06(+2.66)
5.55
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 7.31
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · Max Scherzer
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs BAL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
89(-5)
96
Location+
104
109(+5)
107
Pitching+
98
97(-1)
99
botStf
49
46(-3)
47
botCmd
54
57(+3)
57
botOvr
51
53(+1)
53
SIERA
5.54
5.97(+0.43)
4.71
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.32
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.