Wednesday · September 16, 2026·full·gamePk 822680past slate · free
refreshed 218h 50m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Nationals Park
gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 56%
wind
3 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
WSH
open · HP→CF 30°
wind impact on total
+0.10 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Nationals Park has noticeable wind variability — open bowl on Anacostia, weather matters_
opener / bulk pattern
WSH: Jared Simpson opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI
Jared SimpsonLHP · WSH
xERA 2026
3.02
4.10
xwOBA 2026
0.270
0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.014
-0.162
xERA 2025
2.49
—
xwOBA 2025
0.247
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.31
—
FIP 25-26
3.26
3.34
kwERA 25-26
2.40
4.54
K% 25-26
31.7%
28.6%
BB% 25-26
6.7%
21.4%
IP 25+26 combined
293.0
4.0
ERA actual 2026
3.14
6.75
ERA (L4)
4.30
—
WHIP (L4)
1.43
—
K% (L4)
28.0%
—
BB% (L4)
12.0%
—
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
—
L4 window
08/24→09/10 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
110 (+4)
—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.35 (−0.00)
—
Arsenal RV/100
0.79
—
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 0.79
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.282
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.292
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.229
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.278
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.335
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.178
home arsenal · BULK Jared Simpson — WSH
RV/100 —
No Savant arsenal data.
away · PHI vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.913
Σ match
—
Σ FRV
-19.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.366
—
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.291
—
-9.7
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.387
—
-11.5
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.304
—
+10.6
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.324
—
-6.7
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.326
—
+5.3
7
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.325
—
+0.2
8
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.304
—
-5.6
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.286
—
-1.3
home · WSH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.818
Σ match
2.526
Σ FRV
-5.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
James Wood
0.412
0.365
-7.9
2
LF
Daylen Lile
0.327
0.293
+2.6
3
1B
Abimelec Ortiz
0.288
0.266
+0.1
4
2B
CJ Abrams
0.330
0.292
-12.6
5
DH
José Tena
0.296
0.272
-1.5
6
3B
Jorbit Vivas
0.293
0.261
+3.4
7
CF
Dylan Crews
0.314
0.274
+1.2
8
C
Keibert Ruiz
0.289
0.263
+0.6
9
SS
Nasim Nuñez
0.269
0.242
+8.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.2
framing-0.6
blocking-1.2
throwing+2.1
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Keibert Ruiz
FRV+0.6
framing+2.6
blocking-0.1
throwing-2.0
PHI · Zack Wheeler
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs HOU · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
106(+1)
110
Location+
106
113(+8)
109
Pitching+
112
119(+7)
117
botStf
58
57(-1)
58
botCmd
56
57(+1)
59
botOvr
59
59(+0)
61
SIERA
3.35
2.82(-0.52)
3.35
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-10. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.12
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
WSH · Jared Simpson: no recent outing on file.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Richard Lovelady (4.84)
PHI
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jhoan Duran
CLOSER
CL
1.53
34.4
4.1
0.94
30/0/35
stable
Jonathan Bowlan
SETUP
SU
3.38
31.4
6.2
0.93
2/13/2
stable
José Alvarado
SETUP
MR
3.64
26.7
10.0
0.85
1/15/3
stable
Brooks Raley
SETUP
MR
3.85
23.6
8.3
0.89
1/16/5
stable
Orion Kerkering
SETUP
SU
3.95
23.4
12.7
0.94
2/17/5
stable
Tim Mayza
OPENER
MR
3.09
24.9
5.9
1.15
0/1/9
stable
Chase Shugart
MR
LR
4.82
26.8
8.8
1.13
0/0/10
stable
Tanner Banks
MR
MR
5.45
22.6
8.4
1.04
0/2/6
stable
Kyle Backhus
MOP_UP
MR
4.24
21.3
6.4
0.90
0/1/5
stable
Alex McFarlane
unknown
MR
3.23
22.0
8.5
—
0/4/0
—
WSH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brad Lord
SETUP
MR
4.40
21.0
9.2
2.15
1/7/4
stable
Richard Lovelady
OPENER
MR
5.26
18.7
14.0
0.92
4/9/11
ramping down
Will Dion
MR
MR
4.09
28.0
7.9
1.79
0/0/6
ramping down
Riley Cornelio
MR
MR
4.18
25.0
17.7
2.04
0/0/2
ramping down
Yovanny Cruz
MR
SU
4.34
21.2
13.5
1.44
0/2/1
insufficient data
Erik Tolman
unknown
CL
2.47
23.9
10.9
—
3/1/0
—
Jared Simpson
unknown
LR
3.34
28.6
21.4
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Sinclair
unknown
MR
4.03
22.7
13.6
—
1/0/0
—
Luis Perales
unknown
MR
8.66
24.3
16.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.