Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 825030past slate · free
refreshed 240h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Chase Field
gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
95°F
humidity 33%
wind
4 mph
out to LF
precip
9%
overcast
park
AZ
retractable · HP→CF 23°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Janson JunkRHP · MIA
Michael SorokaRHP · AZ
xERA 2026
4.37
4.31
xwOBA 2026
0.321
0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.004
-0.028
xERA 2025
4.45
3.53
xwOBA 2025
0.326
0.293
Outs/TB 25-26
1.90
2.16
FIP 25-26
3.67
3.60
kwERA 25-26
3.98
3.33
K% 25-26
16.4%
24.0%
BB% 25-26
4.6%
6.8%
IP 25+26 combined
221.0
189.0
ERA actual 2026
4.54
3.53
ERA (L4)
5.71
5.02
WHIP (L4)
1.21
1.67
K% (L4)
11.0%
18.2%
BB% (L4)
5.5%
10.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
3.58
L4 window
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
06/19→08/22 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−1)
93 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.84 (+1.02)
5.06 (+0.86)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.27
0.85
away arsenal — MIA
RV/100 -0.27
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.324
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.350
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.300
Sweeper—-1.70xwOBA 0.306
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.271
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.375
home arsenal — AZ
RV/100 0.85
Slurve—+1.10xwOBA 0.267
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.347
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.360
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.387
Sinker—+3.20xwOBA 0.304
away · MIA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.701
Σ match
2.869
Σ FRV
+11.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Stowers
0.326
0.322
-2.9
2
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.351
0.354
+0.3
3
SS
Otto Lopez
0.327
0.346
+10.2
4
RF
Griffin Conine
0.364
0.375
-1.7
5
2B
Javier Sanoja
0.295
0.311
+3.5
6
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.309
0.325
+4.4
7
C
Agustín Ramírez
0.282
0.289
-3.9
8
3B
Graham Pauley
0.247
0.276
+1.5
9
1B
Deyvison De Los Santos
0.200
0.271
-0.1
home · AZ vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.922
Σ match
2.982
Σ FRV
+25.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Lars Nootbaar
0.351
0.366
+1.7
2
2B
Ketel Marte
0.345
0.344
+4.4
3
C
Gabriel Moreno
0.359
0.359
+7.2
4
SS
Geraldo Perdomo
0.326
0.333
+11.6
5
RF
Corbin Carroll
0.343
0.344
+4.6
6
3B
Nolan Arenado
0.291
0.292
+2.8
7
DH
Jesús Sánchez
0.322
0.327
-8.9
8
1B
Pavin Smith
0.253
0.270
+1.3
9
CF
Jordan Lawlar
0.332
0.347
+1.3
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Agustín Ramírez
FRV-3.9
framing-2.3
blocking-1.4
throwing-0.1
defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)
Gabriel Moreno
FRV+7.2
framing+4.8
blocking+1.0
throwing+1.4
MIA · Janson Junk
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs NYM · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
99(-0)
98
Location+
108
122(+14)
116
Pitching+
107
122(+15)
115
botStf
53
54(+1)
53
botCmd
59
64(+5)
64
botOvr
58
63(+5)
61
SIERA
4.81
7.52(+2.71)
5.84
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.52
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
AZ · Michael Soroka
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs KC · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
93
89(-5)
93
Location+
105
98(-7)
99
Pitching+
97
93(-4)
91
botStf
49
49(+1)
48
botCmd
55
46(-9)
50
botOvr
54
48(-6)
50
SIERA
4.20
3.41(-0.79)
5.06
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.14
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.34)
MIA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Calvin Faucher
SETUP
SU
2.94
24.7
12.5
0.98
3/17/7
stable
Michael Petersen
SETUP
SU
3.23
29.4
10.6
1.06
1/25/4
stable
Dax Fulton
BULK
LR
3.05
23.2
14.1
2.50
0/0/3
ramping down
Victor Vodnik
MR
MR
4.28
15.8
12.4
1.08
4/6/12
stable
Cade Gibson
MR
MR
4.39
18.4
10.4
1.28
0/4/7
stable
Tyler Zuber
MR
MR
5.17
24.8
6.8
0.87
1/10/5
stable
Josh Ekness
MR
MR
5.25
14.8
15.7
0.89
1/2/2
stable
Bradley Blalock
unknown
MR
4.26
23.1
7.7
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Ralston
unknown
MR
5.25
20.0
11.1
—
0/2/0
—
AZ
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brandyn Garcia
SETUP
CL
2.26
32.3
6.0
0.83
5/16/6
stable
Juan Morillo
SETUP
CL
2.71
28.9
9.1
0.92
3/18/9
stable
Jonathan Loáisiga
SETUP
MR
2.82
19.3
4.6
0.93
1/10/11
stable
Kevin Ginkel
SETUP
SU
3.32
25.2
6.3
0.93
3/11/5
stable
Taylor Clarke
SETUP
MR
3.66
16.0
4.6
1.00
0/13/6
stable
Dennis Santana
SETUP
MR
5.01
21.2
10.2
0.95
3/5/22
stable
Justin Martinez
unknown
MR
2.75
32.4
16.2
—
0/1/0
—
Derek Law
unknown
MR
2.98
14.7
5.9
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.