Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 824627past slate · free
refreshed 242h 27m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 91%
wind
3 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
8%
mostly clear
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Martín PérezLHP · ATL
Kevin GausmanRHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.59
4.02
xwOBA 2026
0.328
0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.031
0.008
xERA 2025
5.37
3.74
xwOBA 2025
0.354
0.301
Outs/TB 25-26
2.31
2.06
FIP 25-26
4.24
3.57
kwERA 25-26
4.41
3.26
K% 25-26
18.3%
24.3%
BB% 25-26
10.1%
6.5%
IP 25+26 combined
187.7
359.3
ERA actual 2026
3.08
4.60
ERA (L4)
2.66
4.70
WHIP (L4)
1.52
1.22
K% (L4)
16.3%
28.9%
BB% (L4)
12.0%
6.2%
IP/gm (L4)
5.08
5.75
L4 window
08/22→09/10 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
85 (−2)
94 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.28 (+0.79)
3.15 (−0.82)
Arsenal RV/100
0.45
0.03
away arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.45
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.282
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.346
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.305
4-Seam Fastball—-3.10xwOBA 0.389
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.03
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.339
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.248
Slider—-3.00xwOBA 0.434
away · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.960
Σ match
2.934
Σ FRV
+15.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Drake Baldwin
0.363
0.380
+0.0
2
DH
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.361
0.336
-4.4
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.354
0.354
+10.4
4
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.361
+11.0
5
SS
Mauricio Dubón
0.305
0.296
+4.0
6
3B
Austin Riley
0.300
0.304
-1.1
7
LF
Mike Yastrzemski
0.312
0.297
-0.9
8
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.280
0.280
-2.7
9
RF
Brewer Hicklen
0.346
0.326
-0.6
home · CHC vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.888
Σ match
3.066
Σ FRV
+53.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.375
0.389
+26.8
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.340
0.370
+7.8
3
3B
Alex Bregman
0.320
0.355
+6.5
4
LF
Tyrone Taylor
0.312
0.337
+1.4
5
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.324
0.341
+8.2
6
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.367
+2.3
7
DH
Matt Shaw
0.301
0.297
+1.5
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.290
0.298
+0.3
9
C
Miguel Amaya
0.296
0.311
-1.2
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Drake Baldwin
FRV+0.0
framing+2.6
blocking+0.5
throwing-3.1
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Miguel Amaya
FRV-1.2
framing-0.3
blocking-0.5
throwing+0.1
ATL · Martín Pérez
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs TB · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
80(-7)
85
Location+
102
111(+9)
99
Pitching+
92
92(+0)
84
botStf
43
41(-1)
43
botCmd
56
56(-0)
53
botOvr
48
48(+0)
45
SIERA
4.49
5.23(+0.74)
5.28
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-10. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.03
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Kevin Gausman
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs MIL · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
96(-1)
94
Location+
107
102(-4)
101
Pitching+
104
97(-7)
95
botStf
52
52(-0)
51
botCmd
59
59(+0)
59
botOvr
59
59(-0)
57
SIERA
3.97
3.74(-0.24)
3.15
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.27
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.35R / inningband [0.29–0.41]
0.083 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Victor Mederos (3.87)
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.30)
ATL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Raisel Iglesias
CLOSER
CL
3.42
25.6
7.6
1.04
32/0/29
stable
Dylan Lee
SETUP
SU
2.11
30.0
6.4
0.97
0/30/1
stable
Didier Fuentes
SETUP
SU
2.49
31.5
7.3
1.20
3/16/4
ramping down
Dylan Dodd
SETUP
MR
3.80
26.6
7.9
1.18
1/14/4
ramping down
Brent Suter
OPENER
MR
3.66
20.2
6.9
1.54
0/3/13
stable
Victor Mederos
MR
MR
3.10
21.8
9.0
1.87
1/1/4
ramping up
Owen Murphy
MR
MR
4.60
20.7
6.9
2.22
0/0/2
insufficient data
Ray Kerr
unknown
LR
3.24
19.6
2.0
—
0/1/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.42
24.1
9.3
0.88
3/0/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.93
31.1
13.5
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
3.94
25.6
8.6
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.90
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.06
16.3
7.2
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.00
21.3
10.9
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.56
19.2
7.1
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.