Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 824466past slate · free
refreshed 243h 58m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
91°F
humidity 42%
wind
4 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
+0.13 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Yoshinobu YamamotoRHP · LAD
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN
xERA 2026
3.03
5.35
xwOBA 2026
0.270
0.351
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.024
-0.001
xERA 2025
2.71
—
xwOBA 2025
0.258
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.83
1.63
FIP 25-26
3.13
4.71
kwERA 25-26
2.95
4.40
K% 25-26
27.7%
17.4%
BB% 25-26
7.3%
9.1%
IP 25+26 combined
345.7
119.3
ERA actual 2026
2.62
5.81
ERA (L4)
2.70
9.33
WHIP (L4)
0.83
1.75
K% (L4)
34.3%
13.5%
BB% (L4)
4.9%
7.9%
IP/gm (L4)
6.67
4.58
L4 window
08/21→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
101 (−1)
89 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.35 (−1.11)
5.18 (−0.17)
Arsenal RV/100
1.52
-0.68
away arsenal — LAD
RV/100 1.52
4-Seam Fastball—+2.40xwOBA 0.329
Split-Finger—+0.90xwOBA 0.217
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.295
Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.257
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.247
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -0.68
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.412
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.293
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.370
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.299
away · LAD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.122
Σ match
3.371
Σ FRV
-0.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Josue De Paula
0.499
0.408
+0.0
2
1B
Freddie Freeman
0.368
0.393
+1.5
3
SS
Mookie Betts
0.334
0.380
+6.3
4
RF
Kyle Tucker
0.330
0.354
-7.0
5
LF
Teoscar Hernández
0.333
0.384
-6.1
6
3B
Max Muncy
0.348
0.411
+1.9
7
CF
Tommy Edman
0.307
0.360
+1.0
8
C
Hunter Feduccia
0.314
0.346
+0.1
9
2B
Alex Freeland
0.289
0.335
+1.5
home · CIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.553
Σ match
2.531
Σ FRV
-6.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Carlos Jorge
0.203
0.261
+0.5
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.374
0.325
+4.4
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.348
0.311
-4.1
4
LF
JJ Bleday
0.342
0.311
-1.9
5
DH
Eugenio Suárez
0.298
0.277
-6.2
6
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.263
0.240
-0.5
7
2B
Matt McLain
0.304
0.272
+2.6
8
3B
Juan Brito
0.294
0.284
-1.9
9
C
Will Banfield
0.127
0.249
+0.2
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Feduccia
FRV+0.1
framing+3.7
blocking-1.3
throwing-2.3
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Will Banfield
FRV+0.2
framing+0.3
blocking-0.1
throwing—
LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs CIN · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
101(-2)
101
Location+
107
112(+5)
107
Pitching+
110
110(+0)
108
botStf
54
54(+1)
54
botCmd
58
59(+1)
54
botOvr
58
60(+2)
56
SIERA
3.46
1.73(-1.73)
2.35
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.97
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Rhett Lowder
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs LAD · 3.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
86
93(+7)
89
Location+
102
104(+2)
101
Pitching+
91
95(+5)
89
botStf
47
51(+4)
48
botCmd
55
55(-0)
54
botOvr
52
54(+2)
51
SIERA
5.35
4.45(-0.90)
5.18
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.15
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Bobby Miller (5.40)
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.49]
0.103 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.75)
LAD
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Tanner Scott
CLOSER
CL
2.21
31.5
5.6
0.94
22/12/21
stable
Alex Vesia
SETUP
SU
3.30
30.3
14.0
0.76
3/20/6
stable
Blake Treinen
SETUP
MR
3.33
24.8
9.7
0.79
1/6/5
stable
Paul Gervase
MR
MR
2.97
23.5
14.7
1.92
0/0/2
ramping down
Jack Dreyer
MR
MR
3.46
28.9
8.5
1.01
2/11/9
stable
Brock Stewart
MR
MR
4.24
22.7
10.2
1.06
1/7/2
stable
Evan Phillips
MR
MR
4.64
28.0
6.5
1.00
1/7/3
stable
Seth Halvorsen
MOP_UP
MR
6.14
15.7
13.4
0.90
0/2/4
stable
Bobby Miller
unknown
MR
4.76
15.4
15.4
—
0/0/0
—
Justin Wrobleski
SP
LR
4.29
20.1
5.6
6.02
0/0/1
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.52
24.5
6.3
0.91
23/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.54
27.6
15.0
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.81
24.1
13.0
0.95
2/19/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.77
18.9
9.5
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.00
19.4
14.0
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.67
31.2
13.5
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.6
7.1
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.57
23.5
10.0
1.62
2/3/2
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.