Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 824384past slate · free
refreshed 243h 57m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 45%
wind
10 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
+0.27 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.27 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_
opener / bulk pattern
CWS: Chris Murphy opens → bulk: Erick Fedde· predicted bulk based on 2/31 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Chris MurphyLHP · opener · CWS
Erick FeddeRHP · bulk · CWS
Foster GriffinLHP · CLE
xERA 2026
3.38
4.68
4.34
xwOBA 2026
0.285
0.331
0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.031
-0.003
-0.011
xERA 2025
3.99
5.37
—
xwOBA 2025
0.310
0.354
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.59
1.78
1.96
FIP 25-26
4.34
5.16
4.10
kwERA 25-26
4.20
4.80
3.57
K% 25-26
22.2%
14.6%
21.7%
BB% 25-26
12.2%
9.6%
6.4%
IP 25+26 combined
66.7
274.7
162.7
ERA actual 2026
3.94
3.97
3.65
ERA (L4)
2.08
2.79
7.36
WHIP (L4)
0.92
1.03
1.75
K% (L4)
43.8%
18.2%
17.6%
BB% (L4)
6.2%
6.5%
9.4%
IP/gm (L4)
1.08
4.83
4.58
L4 window
08/05→09/13 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
07/26→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
91 (−15)
89 (−0)
95 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.09 (−1.52)
4.45 (−0.59)
4.01 (+0.00)
Arsenal RV/100
0.31
-0.17
0.16
away arsenal · BULK Erick Fedde — CWS
RV/100 -0.17
Sweeper—+1.20xwOBA 0.288
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.357
Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.376
Changeup—-2.80xwOBA 0.358
home arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.16
Cutter—+1.30xwOBA 0.333
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.323
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.352
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.276
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.308
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.366
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.215
away · CWS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.781
Σ match
2.924
Σ FRV
-0.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.295
0.308
+10.8
2
DH
Randal Grichuk
0.333
0.352
-2.0
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.380
0.399
-3.6
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.342
0.354
-2.3
5
CF
Brenton Doyle
0.234
0.258
-1.9
6
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.342
0.340
-8.9
7
C
Jake Rogers
0.272
0.295
-1.6
8
SS
Luisangel Acuña
0.266
0.282
+0.2
9
RF
Tristan Peters
0.317
0.336
+9.3
home · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.795
Σ match
2.964
Σ FRV
+13.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Steven Kwan
0.323
0.349
+7.3
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.326
0.344
+0.9
3
RF
Jo Adell
0.325
0.341
-8.1
4
DH
Travis Bazzana
0.305
0.332
-2.9
5
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.338
0.360
-3.0
6
2B
Angel Genao
0.294
0.313
+0.3
7
C
Patrick Bailey
0.308
0.313
+5.5
8
CF
Petey Halpin
0.283
0.292
+2.8
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.293
0.320
+10.8
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Jake Rogers
FRV-1.6
framing-1.0
blocking-1.3
throwing+0.7
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+5.5
framing+4.4
blocking-1.8
throwing+2.9
CWS · Erick Fedde
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs PIT · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
87(-2)
89
Location+
108
103(-5)
112
Pitching+
100
92(-8)
103
botStf
50
54(+4)
50
botCmd
56
57(+1)
56
botOvr
53
52(-1)
53
SIERA
5.04
6.95(+1.91)
4.45
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.41
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Foster Griffin
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs BAL · 2.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
91(-7)
95
Location+
102
80(-22)
94
Pitching+
98
79(-19)
91
botStf
47
49(+2)
48
botCmd
53
39(-14)
47
botOvr
52
40(-12)
47
SIERA
4.01
4.45(+0.45)
4.01
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.56
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Jordan Hicks (3.78)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.09)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
2.87
22.4
8.6
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.77
32.5
8.8
1.33
8/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.08
22.5
6.6
0.98
8/9/8
stable
Chris Murphy
OPENER
MR
3.57
24.3
10.7
1.05
1/1/6
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.80
28.5
15.0
0.91
1/8/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.19
21.8
7.5
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.14
38.6
12.0
—
0/1/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.38
35.3
8.2
1.05
36/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.80
37.2
14.2
0.78
1/24/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.33
25.0
6.9
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.69
22.5
9.3
0.86
1/28/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.19
22.3
11.4
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
2.77
40.4
7.7
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.49
26.0
9.7
1.33
0/2/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.03
21.4
4.3
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.61
18.7
7.5
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.