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today's slate

SD @ COL

Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 824307past slate · free

refreshed 242h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 33%

wind

9 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.15 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Walker BuehlerRHP · SD	Kyle FreelandLHP · COL
xERA 2026	4.17	5.18
xwOBA 2026	0.314	0.346
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.014	0.025
xERA 2025	5.41	4.96
xwOBA 2025	0.355	0.342
Outs/TB 25-26	1.83	1.50
FIP 25-26	4.99	4.43
kwERA 25-26	4.36	3.87
K% 25-26	18.5%	18.0%
BB% 25-26	9.9%	5.2%
IP 25+26 combined	264.7	287.0
ERA actual 2026	4.61	6.37
ERA (L4)	2.79	2.52
WHIP (L4)	0.93	1.08
K% (L4)	25.7%	17.6%
BB% (L4)	8.6%	6.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	6.25
L4 window	08/17→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/02→08/19 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.03	-0.97

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 -0.03

Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.304
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.277
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.383
Slider—+2.50xwOBA 0.233
Changeup—-5.30xwOBA 0.401
Curveball—-2.40xwOBA 0.353
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.259

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.97

4-Seam Fastball—-2.40xwOBA 0.396
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.357
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.331
Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.368
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.261
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.349

away · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

3.269

Σ FRV

+25.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.377	0.441	+4.7
2	DH	Austin Hays	0.289	0.335	-1.9
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.335	0.384	+6.3
4	1B	Ty France	0.336	0.368	+8.9
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.347	0.390	+9.3
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.319	0.356	+4.3
7	C	Luis Campusano	0.332	0.365	-3.0
8	LF	Samad Taylor	0.303	0.333	-0.7
9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.268	0.297	-2.1

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.767

Σ match

2.820

Σ FRV

-4.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.324	0.330	-0.8
2	2B	Adael Amador	0.285	0.300	+0.6
3	SS	Cole Carrigg	0.309	0.317	+0.8
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.336	0.341	+5.6
5	3B	Kyle Karros	0.337	0.337	+0.6
6	DH	Mickey Moniak	0.278	0.287	+0.5
7	RF	Troy Johnston	0.323	0.328	-3.2
8	C	Brett Sullivan	0.282	0.282	-5.9
9	LF	Zac Veen	0.293	0.299	-2.6

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-3.0
framing-4.6
blocking-0.5
throwing+2.1

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan

FRV-5.9
framing-4.3
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.5

SD · Walker Buehler

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs WSH · 2.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 92 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 49 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 3.13

2026-08-23: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 49 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 3.51

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Kyle Freeland

Last outing 2026-08-19 vs LAD · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-19. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-14: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 99 · botStf 47 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.79

2026-08-08: Stuff+ 93 · Location+ 85 · Pitching+ 77 · botStf 48 · botCmd 45 · botOvr 41 · SIERA 5.62

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.43)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.46–0.53]

0.116 R/PA · 0.164 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.73)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.97	48.4	9.3	1.04	37/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.35	30.0	7.2	1.16	3/26/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.51	22.0	8.5	1.40	0/8/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.86	26.4	6.4	1.09	2/15/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	3.92	15.9	7.8	1.17	0/4/14	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.23	26.4	13.4	1.35	1/9/5	ramping down
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.24	23.5	13.6	1.22	0/3/5	stable
Randy Vásquez	SP	LR	4.30	15.0	6.8	4.83	0/2/0	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.75	22.8	10.4	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.57	24.6	12.7	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.30	22.0	13.7	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.49	19.7	13.3	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.65	17.3	6.0	0.86	1/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.49	20.1	11.7	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.57	14.6	9.0	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.93	24.1	14.8	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.30	21.9	8.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 SD · 9 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

3 R

11H · 3HR · 1BB · 6K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.556 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 3 K · relief 3.3 IP · 3 arms

COL

9 R

16H · 2HR · 1BB · 3K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.463 · SLGe 0.711 · K% 7.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 5.0 IP · 2 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
Austin Hays (DH) · 2-3 | HR, RBI, RHR
Luis Campusano (C) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Ty France (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

big nights

Cole Carrigg (CF) · 4-5 | 2 HR, 2B, K2-HR night · 4 H · 11 TB · 5 RBI
Troy Johnston (RF) · 3-3 | 2 2B, HBP, 2 RBI3 H · 5 TB