Baseball Daily

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today's slate

KC @ HOU

Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 824143past slate · free

refreshed 243h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 72%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.03 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael WachaRHP · KC	Hunter BrownRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	3.88	3.38
xwOBA 2026	0.304	0.285
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	0.018
xERA 2025	4.16	3.16
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.278
Outs/TB 25-26	2.04	2.56
FIP 25-26	3.87	3.46
kwERA 25-26	3.91	3.20
K% 25-26	18.8%	27.5%
BB% 25-26	6.4%	9.2%
IP 25+26 combined	355.3	277.3
ERA actual 2026	3.25	3.52
ERA (L4)	1.33	3.09
WHIP (L4)	0.85	1.33
K% (L4)	26.0%	29.5%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	6.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.75	5.83
L4 window	08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/22→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.47	0.13

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.47

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.332
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.220
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.336
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.377
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.309
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.301

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.13

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.227
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.305
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.257
Slider—-2.40xwOBA 0.301
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.426

away · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.884

Σ match

2.620

Σ FRV

+26.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.315	0.287	+1.9
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.381	0.346	+16.0
3	DH	Jac Caglianone	0.355	0.322	-8.1
4	3B	Maikel Garcia	0.317	0.289	+5.4
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.329	0.301	+0.4
6	2B	Michael Massey	0.308	0.282	+5.9
7	RF	John Rave	0.321	0.288	+1.3
8	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.261	0.239	+3.3
9	LF	Isaac Collins	0.297	0.267	+0.5

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.845

Σ match

2.811

Σ FRV

-7.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.321	0.326	-3.0
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.443	0.445	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.322	0.317	+1.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.273	0.274	-10.1
5	C	Yainer Diaz	0.299	0.291	-4.4
6	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.287	0.277	+4.0
7	1B	Christian Walker	0.304	0.292	+6.1
8	RF	Cam Smith	0.320	0.312	+2.5
9	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.276	0.277	-1.7

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.9
framing+2.1
blocking-2.5
throwing+2.3

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.4
framing-4.0
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.0

KC · Michael Wacha

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 96 · botStf 50 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 4.18

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 114 · Pitching+ 115 · botStf 50 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 1.85

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Hunter Brown

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs PHI · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 98 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 50 · botCmd 47 · botOvr 49 · SIERA 3.26

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 105 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 58 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 1.90

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.50R / inningband [0.44–0.55]

0.117 R/PA · 0.166 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.51]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.36)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	5.04	22.0	11.8	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Lucas Erceg	CLOSER	MR	5.59	14.9	13.9	0.96	12/4/24	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	6.15	15.3	8.2	3.67	0/3/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.02	25.4	8.6	1.06	7/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.82	22.4	12.9	1.27	0/4/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.40	14.3	9.5	1.56	0/1/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.14	20.8	11.5	1.03	1/3/15	stable
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.23	3.4	3.4	—	0/1/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.31	22.0	11.0	—	4/6/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.60	35.8	7.3	0.91	25/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.59	30.3	15.9	0.92	8/14/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.83	21.8	6.3	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	4.20	24.0	10.1	1.68	1/10/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.79	17.4	7.9	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	4.22	33.3	3.3	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.50	22.6	13.9	0.67	0/9/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.43	28.0	15.4	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 KC · 4 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

2 R

4H · 1HR · 3BB · 14K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 41.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

HOU

4 R

4H · 3HR · 2BB · 5K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.226 · SLGe 0.464 · K% 16.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 14 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

KC · standout lines

big nights

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Jac Caglianone (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 3-4 | 2 HR, K, 2 RBI2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB
Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Isaac Paredes (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jose Altuve (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Christian Walker (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K