Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SEA @ LAA

Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 823980past slate · free

refreshed 242h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 65%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Logan GilbertRHP · SEA	Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.64	5.21
xwOBA 2026	0.295	0.347
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.000	-0.011
xERA 2025	3.09	3.53
xwOBA 2025	0.275	0.293
Outs/TB 25-26	2.07	1.74
FIP 25-26	3.62	5.85
kwERA 25-26	2.60	4.45
K% 25-26	29.5%	18.1%
BB% 25-26	6.1%	10.2%
IP 25+26 combined	303.0	99.0
ERA actual 2026	3.72	5.12
ERA (L4)	6.23	2.22
WHIP (L4)	1.34	0.90
K% (L4)	32.6%	19.4%
BB% (L4)	7.6%	7.5%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	6.08
L4 window	08/24→09/10 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/16→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.53	-0.61

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.53

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.349
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.311
Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.185
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.257
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.230
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.335

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.61

Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.336
Split-Finger—+0.40xwOBA 0.243
Sweeper—-0.70xwOBA 0.286
Sinker—-4.40xwOBA 0.510

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.892

Σ match

3.122

Σ FRV

-24.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.322	0.330	-7.3
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.347	0.387	-6.6
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.351	0.376	-0.1
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.314	0.353	-4.0
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.336	0.352	-0.3
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.315	0.350	+2.3
7	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.340	-4.1
8	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.365	0.346	-0.1
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.227	0.287	-4.5

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.635

Σ match

2.551

Σ FRV

+2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.310	0.295	-1.4
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.378	0.349	-2.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.316	0.317	+1.3
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.308	0.302	-5.1
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.293	0.281	-2.2
6	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.267	0.249	+1.5
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.286	0.274	+5.3
8	2B	Christian Moore	0.236	0.242	-1.6
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.241	0.240	+8.1

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-4.0
framing-3.7
blocking+2.6
throwing-2.9

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+8.1
framing+5.6
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.6

SEA · Logan Gilbert

Last outing 2026-09-10 vs TEX · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-10. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 114 · Location+ 82 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 59 · botCmd 45 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 2.14

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 59 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 4.07

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Ryan Johnson

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs BOS · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 107 · botStf 50 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.67

2026-08-22: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 85 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 51 · botCmd 48 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 5.38

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.47]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.31–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.37)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.17	37.4	10.0	0.93	27/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.00	17.9	6.7	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.27	22.0	8.7	0.82	1/21/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.68	22.9	7.9	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.69	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.88	24.5	12.9	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.57	19.7	7.5	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	25.9	8.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.33	20.8	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.90	36.6	9.9	1.16	3/5/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.59	27.8	5.6	0.56	0/7/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.92	26.9	10.8	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.95	20.4	7.5	1.61	2/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.83	24.7	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.10	27.8	16.7	—	5/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.45	19.7	1.6	—	0/3/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.97	22.9	14.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.07	30.2	7.9	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 SEA · 2 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

1 R

7H · 0HR · 0BB · 9K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 26.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA

2 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 10K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.294 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Josh Lowe (RF) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Denzer Guzman (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K