Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 823654past slate · free
refreshed 243h 52m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Target Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 44%
wind
6 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
MIN
open · HP→CF 73°
wind impact on total
+0.11 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Max FriedLHP · NYY
Bailey OberRHP · MIN
xERA 2026
2.57
4.56
xwOBA 2026
0.249
0.327
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.006
-0.010
xERA 2025
3.38
4.36
xwOBA 2025
0.287
0.323
Outs/TB 25-26
2.67
1.66
FIP 25-26
2.95
4.74
kwERA 25-26
3.36
3.90
K% 25-26
23.9%
18.3%
BB% 25-26
7.0%
5.8%
IP 25+26 combined
294.3
264.0
ERA actual 2026
2.73
4.28
ERA (L4)
2.04
2.41
WHIP (L4)
1.08
1.34
K% (L4)
27.1%
21.7%
BB% (L4)
8.6%
10.8%
IP/gm (L4)
4.42
4.67
L4 window
08/13→09/10 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/17→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
107 (+0)
89 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.53 (−0.29)
4.90 (−0.19)
Arsenal RV/100
1.31
0.07
away arsenal — NYY
RV/100 1.31
Cutter—+2.50xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.263
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.298
Curveball—+1.60xwOBA 0.194
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.245
Sweeper—+2.30xwOBA 0.219
home arsenal — MIN
RV/100 0.07
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.359
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.355
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.277
Sweeper—+3.30xwOBA 0.162
Sinker—-3.80xwOBA 0.578
away · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.815
Σ match
2.915
Σ FRV
+9.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.377
0.405
-4.7
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.338
0.335
+9.6
3
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.327
0.323
-5.2
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.352
0.368
+1.3
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.333
0.325
-2.5
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.267
0.289
+0.2
7
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.290
0.306
+5.8
8
C
Ali Sánchez
0.250
0.284
+4.0
9
3B
José Caballero
0.281
0.281
+1.4
home · MIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.008
Σ match
2.375
Σ FRV
-13.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.316
0.247
-10.9
2
SS
Kaelen Culpepper
0.304
0.253
+0.3
3
DH
Josh Bell
0.335
0.267
-1.0
4
2B
Kody Clemens
0.337
0.266
-2.5
5
1B
Royce Lewis
0.312
0.259
-2.0
6
3B
Brooks Lee
0.275
0.229
-1.3
7
C
Victor Caratini
0.317
0.258
+0.6
8
CF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.501
0.345
+0.3
9
LF
Austin Martin
0.311
0.252
+2.9
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Ali Sánchez
FRV+4.0
framing+5.3
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Victor Caratini
FRV+0.6
framing+2.8
blocking+0.9
throwing-3.9
NYY · Max Fried
Last outing 2026-09-10 vs COL · 3.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
106(-0)
107
Location+
101
93(-9)
98
Pitching+
110
98(-12)
103
botStf
53
54(+1)
53
botCmd
51
44(-8)
52
botOvr
53
49(-4)
53
SIERA
3.82
2.38(-1.44)
3.53
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-10. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.92
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIN · Bailey Ober
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs CWS · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
87(-4)
89
Location+
94
90(-3)
93
Pitching+
88
84(-4)
86
botStf
47
45(-2)
46
botCmd
53
48(-5)
52
botOvr
49
43(-6)
46
SIERA
5.09
4.24(-0.84)
4.90
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.04
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.36–0.56]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.29)
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.47)
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.60
27.7
6.9
1.10
34/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.29
30.0
7.8
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.71
17.2
11.0
0.91
2/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
6.04
10.8
5.6
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.78
20.8
9.8
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.71
17.2
9.2
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.03
26.1
13.0
—
0/2/0
—
Bradley Hanner
unknown
MR
10.78
26.9
3.8
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
7.43
13.2
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.56
21.0
12.9
1.12
22/6/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.36
35.0
9.4
0.94
5/20/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.80
21.7
12.7
0.94
1/12/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.10
19.1
11.4
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.19
20.9
8.1
1.31
4/22/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.89
26.0
8.9
1.04
0/6/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
4.16
22.1
4.3
1.00
1/8/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.36
24.5
10.5
1.46
2/1/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.