Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 823574past slate · free
refreshed 243h 52m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 61%
wind
6 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
+0.11 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Shane BazRHP · BAL
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM
xERA 2026
4.14
4.97
xwOBA 2026
0.313
0.340
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.002
0.010
xERA 2025
3.88
3.99
xwOBA 2025
0.306
0.310
Outs/TB 25-26
1.91
1.62
FIP 25-26
3.94
4.46
kwERA 25-26
3.69
3.30
K% 25-26
22.8%
23.8%
BB% 25-26
8.5%
6.3%
IP 25+26 combined
335.3
194.0
ERA actual 2026
4.05
4.79
ERA (L4)
4.24
7.66
WHIP (L4)
1.24
1.48
K% (L4)
18.4%
12.9%
BB% (L4)
9.2%
4.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.83
5.58
L4 window
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
92 (−6)
94 (−9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.59 (+0.13)
4.68 (+0.65)
Arsenal RV/100
0.06
-0.74
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 0.06
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.331
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.275
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.336
Changeup—-2.70xwOBA 0.380
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.293
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 -0.74
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.336
Sweeper—-2.00xwOBA 0.284
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.398
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.401
Changeup—-2.90xwOBA 0.352
away · BAL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.689
Σ match
3.018
Σ FRV
+0.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Rece Hinds
0.188
0.237
-0.3
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.393
0.445
-2.9
3
DH
Coby Mayo
0.326
0.357
-2.0
4
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.341
0.368
+1.4
5
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.320
0.344
+0.8
6
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.284
0.320
-0.9
7
C
Yohel Pozo
0.250
0.288
-1.1
8
RF
Leody Taveras
0.270
0.293
-2.6
9
CF
Colton Cowser
0.317
0.364
+8.0
home · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.981
Σ match
3.036
Σ FRV
+4.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.331
0.336
+0.6
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.413
0.423
-4.4
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.327
0.332
-2.3
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.335
0.332
+7.9
5
1B
Jared Young
0.314
0.326
+0.1
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.304
0.325
-6.8
7
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.323
0.322
+6.9
8
DH
Brett Baty
0.311
0.328
+0.3
9
C
Francisco Alvarez
0.323
0.313
+1.8
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Yohel Pozo
FRV-1.1
framing-1.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.2
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Francisco Alvarez
FRV+1.8
framing+2.5
blocking-1.8
throwing+1.1
BAL · Shane Baz
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs CLE · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
95(-3)
92
Location+
103
107(+4)
104
Pitching+
103
105(+2)
100
botStf
52
50(-3)
49
botCmd
54
53(-1)
52
botOvr
52
51(-1)
50
SIERA
4.46
4.04(-0.42)
4.59
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.51
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Sean Manaea
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs MIA · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
95(-8)
94
Location+
97
101(+4)
98
Pitching+
96
95(-1)
92
botStf
48
46(-2)
47
botCmd
55
55(-0)
54
botOvr
53
52(-1)
51
SIERA
4.03
3.91(-0.12)
4.68
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.33
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
12
7 BAL · 5 NYM
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
BAL
7 R
8H · 4HR · 1BB · 17K · 12LOB
OBPe 0.220 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 41.5
Their pitching
11.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 7.0 IP · 8 arms
NYM
5 R
12H · 1HR · 5BB · 6K · 24LOB
OBPe 0.347 · SLGe 0.419 · K% 12.2
Their pitching
11.0 IP · 5 ER · 17 K · relief 5.7 IP · 6 arms
BAL · standout lines
big nights
Pete Alonso (1B) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Coby Mayo (DH) · 2-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR