Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 823333past slate · free
refreshed 243h 58m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
77°F
humidity 63%
wind
4 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.07 R/Gnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 2/42 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL
Lake BacharRHP · opener · PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT
xERA 2026
2.10
3.51
4.97
xwOBA 2026
0.225
0.290
0.340
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.007
-0.004
-0.031
xERA 2025
3.41
4.48
4.07
xwOBA 2025
0.288
0.327
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
3.09
2.25
2.00
FIP 25-26
2.63
4.42
3.49
kwERA 25-26
1.99
3.56
3.93
K% 25-26
36.4%
25.4%
19.4%
BB% 25-26
8.0%
10.1%
7.1%
IP 25+26 combined
227.3
150.3
214.7
ERA actual 2026
1.95
3.52
3.81
ERA (L4)
3.22
2.16
9.45
WHIP (L4)
1.12
1.20
2.48
K% (L4)
29.2%
26.5%
9.9%
BB% (L4)
11.2%
17.6%
11.3%
IP/gm (L4)
5.58
2.08
3.33
L4 window
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
05/25→08/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
121 (−6)
90 (−8)
91 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.92 (+1.43)
4.30 (−0.25)
5.94 (+1.40)
Arsenal RV/100
1.86
0.77
0.10
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 1.86
4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.232
Cutter—+2.90xwOBA 0.252
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.234
Curveball—+2.20xwOBA 0.155
home arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT
RV/100 0.10
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.373
Split-Finger—+1.50xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.405
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.335
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.264
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.426
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.333
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.946
Σ match
3.193
Σ FRV
+14.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.356
0.382
+3.7
2
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.342
0.375
+7.3
3
2B
Brice Turang
0.345
0.375
+12.2
4
C
William Contreras
0.336
0.358
-3.3
5
1B
Jake Bauers
0.380
0.406
-8.8
6
DH
Christian Yelich
0.312
0.351
+0.0
7
RF
Luis Lara
0.301
0.321
+1.3
8
SS
Joey Ortiz
0.300
0.323
+10.2
9
3B
David Hamilton
0.274
0.303
-8.0
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.915
Σ match
2.212
Σ FRV
-9.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.303
0.227
-4.2
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.321
0.259
+11.5
3
RF
Bryan Reynolds
0.359
0.276
-3.2
4
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.358
0.282
+1.5
5
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.248
-9.5
6
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.315
0.229
-3.0
7
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.335
0.243
-0.3
8
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.311
0.233
-3.9
9
LF
Jake Mangum
0.287
0.214
+2.1
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.3
framing-5.0
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.9
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-0.3
framing+0.9
blocking-0.3
throwing-1.0
MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs CHC · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
128
127(-1)
121
Location+
100
106(+6)
93
Pitching+
128
134(+6)
117
botStf
65
65(-1)
66
botCmd
55
55(+0)
52
botOvr
63
64(+0)
61
SIERA
2.49
2.57(+0.09)
3.92
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs CHC · 1.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
93(+2)
91
Location+
105
91(-14)
107
Pitching+
96
89(-7)
98
botStf
46
48(+2)
47
botCmd
55
43(-12)
56
botOvr
51
45(-6)
52
SIERA
4.54
8.32(+3.77)
5.94
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.61
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.44]
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.13)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.