Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 823007past slate · free
refreshed 243h 52m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 7:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
87°F
humidity 57%
wind
9 mph
in from RF
precip
18%
overcast
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
-0.23 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Busch's open bowl — summer south winds slightly aid HR; spring north winds suppress_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Blade TidwellRHP · SF
Andre PallanteRHP · STL
xERA 2026
4.46
3.91
xwOBA 2026
0.324
0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.007
-0.008
xERA 2025
5.62
4.30
xwOBA 2025
0.361
0.321
Outs/TB 25-26
1.95
2.00
FIP 25-26
5.41
4.19
kwERA 25-26
4.57
4.43
K% 25-26
17.7%
16.2%
BB% 25-26
10.8%
8.1%
IP 25+26 combined
61.7
308.7
ERA actual 2026
4.82
3.45
ERA (L4)
5.49
2.45
WHIP (L4)
1.37
1.32
K% (L4)
20.7%
14.1%
BB% (L4)
11.5%
9.4%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
5.50
L4 window
08/22→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/11→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (−8)
95 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.89 (+1.19)
4.81 (+0.40)
Arsenal RV/100
0.24
0.61
away arsenal — SF
RV/100 0.24
Sweeper—+0.40xwOBA 0.234
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.407
Sinker—+3.10xwOBA 0.347
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.403
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.166
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 0.61
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.335
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.269
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.327
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.292
away · SF vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.731
Σ match
2.694
Σ FRV
-8.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Drew Gilbert
0.329
0.320
+3.5
2
1B
Bryce Eldridge
0.354
0.358
+1.9
3
2B
Jonah Cox
0.261
0.267
+1.9
4
DH
Jung Hoo Lee
0.317
0.304
-6.8
5
3B
Osleivis Basabe
0.276
0.271
-5.5
6
LF
Turner Hill
0.318
0.316
-1.0
7
C
Drew Cavanaugh
0.317
0.308
-2.4
8
RF
Grant McCray
0.308
0.301
-2.2
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.251
0.249
+2.1
home · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.942
Σ match
3.001
Σ FRV
+10.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Bryan Torres
0.294
0.326
+2.0
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.332
0.337
-4.4
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.376
0.401
+5.4
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.343
0.342
-8.3
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.405
0.379
+0.2
6
2B
Thomas Saggese
0.315
0.318
-0.2
7
CF
Nathan Church
0.289
0.293
+2.2
8
SS
Masyn Winn
0.299
0.316
+16.4
9
3B
José Fermín
0.289
0.289
-2.4
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Drew Cavanaugh
FRV-2.4
framing-3.2
blocking+0.8
throwing+0.1
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV+0.2
framing+0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.2
SF · Blade Tidwell
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs STL · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
95(-13)
99
Location+
91
94(+3)
96
Pitching+
95
95(+1)
94
botStf
54
52(-3)
51
botCmd
50
53(+4)
51
botOvr
53
52(-0)
53
SIERA
4.70
5.89(+1.19)
5.89
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.34
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Andre Pallante
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs SF · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
100(+3)
95
Location+
102
119(+17)
96
Pitching+
101
115(+14)
93
botStf
49
47(-2)
49
botCmd
53
57(+4)
47
botOvr
51
53(+2)
45
SIERA
4.41
2.65(-1.76)
4.81
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.26
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.47R / inningband [0.37–0.58]
0.112 R/PA · 0.158 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.