Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 822925past slate · free
refreshed 243h 58m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 86%
wind
6 mph
in from LF
precip
30%
overcast
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.21 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jack PerkinsRHP · ATH
Griffin JaxRHP · TB
xERA 2026
4.08
4.59
xwOBA 2026
0.311
0.328
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.050
-0.018
xERA 2025
3.64
3.26
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.282
Outs/TB 25-26
1.86
2.00
FIP 25-26
4.73
3.43
kwERA 25-26
3.69
2.86
K% 25-26
24.6%
28.9%
BB% 25-26
10.3%
7.8%
IP 25+26 combined
142.0
165.3
ERA actual 2026
6.53
3.99
ERA (L4)
7.00
2.95
WHIP (L4)
2.06
1.31
K% (L4)
19.1%
26.6%
BB% (L4)
11.2%
7.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.50
4.58
L4 window
08/12→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
07/28→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (−5)
102 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.16 (+0.77)
4.72 (+0.35)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.86
0.15
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -0.86
4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.386
Sweeper—+0.40xwOBA 0.281
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.210
Cutter—-0.80xwOBA 0.335
Sinker—-5.40xwOBA 0.350
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.261
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.15
Sweeper—+0.60xwOBA 0.320
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.280
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.349
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.342
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.248
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.661
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.798
Σ match
2.845
Σ FRV
-29.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Henry Bolte
0.317
0.319
+3.8
2
1B
Jeff McNeil
0.305
0.328
-1.7
3
DH
Shea Langeliers
0.364
0.355
-3.6
4
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.325
0.319
-10.0
5
3B
Zack Gelof
0.313
0.320
+0.1
6
2B
Donovan Walton
0.336
0.352
-7.6
7
LF
Carlos Cortes
0.305
0.311
-7.3
8
C
Jonah Heim
0.290
0.294
-6.0
9
SS
Alika Williams
0.243
0.247
+2.7
home · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.840
Σ match
2.833
Σ FRV
+9.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.350
0.341
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.348
0.361
-0.7
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.362
0.366
-8.3
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.317
0.319
+2.5
5
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.334
0.325
+9.3
6
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.264
0.257
+2.9
7
2B
Richie Palacios
0.309
0.318
-4.0
8
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.290
0.290
-1.5
9
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.266
0.255
+9.1
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Jonah Heim
FRV-6.0
framing-1.3
blocking-2.0
throwing-1.6
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+2.5
framing+0.2
blocking-0.4
throwing+1.9
ATH · Jack Perkins
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs TOR · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
92(-7)
94
Location+
100
111(+11)
95
Pitching+
99
106(+7)
90
botStf
55
50(-5)
51
botCmd
54
56(+2)
51
botOvr
55
54(-1)
50
SIERA
4.39
4.23(-0.16)
5.16
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.08
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Griffin Jax
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs ATL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
98(-8)
102
Location+
100
109(+9)
112
Pitching+
109
106(-3)
116
botStf
61
53(-9)
56
botCmd
54
59(+5)
58
botOvr
58
58(-1)
60
SIERA
4.37
6.63(+2.26)
4.72
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.42
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.