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today's slate

BOS @ TEX

Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 822849past slate · free

refreshed 243h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 30%

wind

10 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Patrick SandovalLHP · BOS	Jacob deGromRHP · TEX
xERA 2026	5.28	3.38
xwOBA 2026	0.349	0.285
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.023	-0.010
xERA 2025	—	3.36
xwOBA 2025	—	0.286
Outs/TB 25-26	1.63	2.28
FIP 25-26	3.97	3.35
kwERA 25-26	3.98	2.61
K% 25-26	22.5%	29.2%
BB% 25-26	10.7%	5.9%
IP 25+26 combined	55.0	322.0
ERA actual 2026	4.58	3.80
ERA (L4)	4.29	3.97
WHIP (L4)	1.62	0.79
K% (L4)	23.7%	34.9%
BB% (L4)	11.8%	7.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	5.67
L4 window	08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/25→09/10 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-1.25	0.79

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 -1.25

Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.202
Slider—-1.90xwOBA 0.336
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.406
Sinker—-3.40xwOBA 0.518
Sweeper—-5.10xwOBA 0.311

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.79

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.346
Slider—+2.10xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.235
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.292
Sinker—-3.70xwOBA 0.345

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.939

Σ match

2.702

Σ FRV

+27.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Roman Anthony	0.349	0.336	-0.1
2	DH	Mickey Gasper	0.371	0.377	-1.9
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.335	0.306	+11.8
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.375	0.334	+0.6
5	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.352	0.313	+4.5
6	SS	Trevor Story	0.251	0.226	-1.2
7	CF	Jarren Duran	0.298	0.262	+4.3
8	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.292	0.267	+6.1
9	2B	Nick Sogard	0.316	0.281	+3.0

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.844

Σ match

3.193

Σ FRV

+9.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Justin Foscue	0.329	0.371	+2.4
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.353	0.398	-1.6
3	3B	Josh Jung	0.346	0.378	-3.9
4	1B	Jake Burger	0.315	0.368	+3.6
5	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.346	0.386	-5.5
6	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.358	+3.0
7	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.306	0.349	+13.6
8	DH	Elias Díaz	0.272	0.295	+1.6
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.261	0.291	-3.3

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+11.8
framing+7.5
blocking+0.7
throwing+3.6

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.3
framing-4.1
blocking+1.6
throwing-0.8

BOS · Patrick Sandoval

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 92 · Location+ 87 · Pitching+ 94 · botStf 52 · botCmd 42 · botOvr 42 · SIERA 6.51

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 52 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.51

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Jacob deGrom

Last outing 2026-09-10 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-10. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 110 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 126 · botStf 56 · botCmd 67 · botOvr 68 · SIERA 2.33

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 109 · Pitching+ 120 · botStf 58 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 1.67

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.42]

0.084 R/PA · 0.119 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.08)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.40–0.47]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.38)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.60	32.4	11.0	0.96	34/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	1.97	31.2	3.8	0.97	3/25/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	3.05	34.3	14.7	0.86	4/14/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	3.99	24.2	7.6	0.96	1/7/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.44	26.4	12.4	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.10	18.3	7.3	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.87	31.5	9.3	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.20	19.0	1.6	—	1/0/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.62	29.6	8.5	1.28	29/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.75	16.4	6.1	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	4.06	25.6	13.8	0.85	0/15/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	3.04	19.9	6.8	0.95	4/12/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.01	23.4	14.9	0.89	0/3/1	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.05	21.2	8.1	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.99	27.1	9.4	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.63	19.4	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 BOS · 4 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

2 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 15K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 39.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 10 K · relief 5.3 IP · 5 arms

TEX

4 R

7H · 0HR · 3BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.303 · SLGe 0.267 · K% 30.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 15 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Nick Sogard (2B) · 1-3 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-40-for-4
Willson Contreras (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

TEX · standout lines

tough nights

Josh Jung (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4