Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 822762past slate · free
refreshed 243h 57m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 7:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 64%
wind
4 mph
out to CF
precip
19%
overcast
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
TOR: Braydon Fisher opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Drew AndersonRHP · DET
Braydon FisherRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
3.91
4.02
xwOBA 2026
0.305
0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.018
-0.018
xERA 2025
—
3.33
xwOBA 2025
—
0.285
Outs/TB 25-26
1.97
2.76
FIP 25-26
4.23
3.74
kwERA 25-26
3.52
3.54
K% 25-26
25.4%
27.0%
BB% 25-26
9.7%
11.5%
IP 25+26 combined
97.0
122.7
ERA actual 2026
3.80
3.22
ERA (L4)
3.05
2.08
WHIP (L4)
1.31
0.92
K% (L4)
20.7%
18.8%
BB% (L4)
12.6%
25.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
1.08
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
07/01→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
91 (−8)
86 (−13)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.12 (+1.61)
7.75 (+3.02)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.16
0.26
away arsenal — DET
RV/100 -0.16
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.316
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.285
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.263
Slider—-4.20xwOBA 0.479
home arsenal · BULK Braydon Fisher — TOR
RV/100 0.26
Slider—+0.30xwOBA 0.305
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.333
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.270
away · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.946
Σ match
2.772
Σ FRV
-4.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kevin McGonigle
0.354
0.323
-0.0
2
2B
Gleyber Torres
0.324
0.293
+0.2
3
3B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.297
0.271
-8.2
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.373
0.385
-5.7
5
C
Eduardo Valencia
0.329
0.307
+1.2
6
CF
Max Clark
0.320
0.300
+2.5
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.308
0.280
-6.2
8
RF
Zach McKinstry
0.286
0.279
+10.8
9
SS
John Peck
0.355
0.334
+0.7
home · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.699
Σ match
2.633
Σ FRV
+31.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.306
0.302
+3.4
2
DH
George Springer
0.308
0.305
-0.3
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.335
0.332
+5.7
4
C
Alejandro Kirk
0.312
0.311
+9.9
5
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.287
0.285
+7.1
6
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.330
0.323
-3.4
7
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.274
0.260
+15.8
8
LF
Josh Smith
0.285
0.276
-3.5
9
2B
Ernie Clement
0.262
0.239
-3.1
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Eduardo Valencia
FRV+1.2
framing+0.6
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.1
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Alejandro Kirk
FRV+9.9
framing+7.2
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.8
DET · Drew Anderson
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs MIN · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
89(-11)
91
Location+
101
105(+4)
98
Pitching+
103
96(-6)
90
botStf
55
52(-2)
52
botCmd
52
49(-3)
51
botOvr
54
48(-6)
49
SIERA
3.51
5.17(+1.66)
5.12
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.08
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · Braydon Fisher
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs BAL · 0.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
113(+15)
86
Location+
98
103(+5)
108
Pitching+
97
84(-13)
100
botStf
45
40(-5)
44
botCmd
52
69(+18)
52
botOvr
49
57(+8)
48
SIERA
4.73
-0.39(-5.12)
7.75
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-22 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.53
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.