Tuesday · September 15, 2026·full·gamePk 822683past slate · free
refreshed 243h 57m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Nationals Park
gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 56%
wind
6 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
WSH
open · HP→CF 30°
wind impact on total
-0.02 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI
Jackson KentLHP · WSH
xERA 2026
3.31
5.49
xwOBA 2026
0.282
0.355
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.013
-0.005
xERA 2025
3.02
—
xwOBA 2025
0.272
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.32
1.95
FIP 25-26
2.63
4.08
kwERA 25-26
2.86
5.12
K% 25-26
26.6%
17.8%
BB% 25-26
5.4%
15.5%
IP 25+26 combined
389.3
27.3
ERA actual 2026
2.79
6.59
ERA (L4)
4.56
5.49
WHIP (L4)
1.17
1.58
K% (L4)
21.9%
15.9%
BB% (L4)
3.8%
13.6%
IP/gm (L4)
6.42
4.92
L4 window
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
114 (−2)
88 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.41 (+0.45)
5.72 (+0.06)
Arsenal RV/100
0.61
-0.74
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 0.61
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.367
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.196
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.258
home arsenal — WSH
RV/100 -0.74
4-Seam Fastball—-2.40xwOBA 0.418
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.340
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.324
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.167
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.414
away · PHI vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.889
Σ match
3.232
Σ FRV
-8.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.365
0.403
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.291
0.332
-9.8
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.389
0.441
-11.4
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.303
0.321
+10.6
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.324
0.362
-6.7
6
LF
Bryan De La Cruz
0.275
0.303
+1.0
7
3B
Bryson Stott
0.327
0.376
+5.3
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.323
0.359
+0.2
9
CF
Derek Hill
0.292
0.334
+2.7
home · WSH vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.811
Σ match
2.485
Σ FRV
+15.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Dylan Crews
0.312
0.272
+1.1
2
DH
Andrés Chaparro
0.337
0.288
-3.4
3
3B
Brady House
0.338
0.307
-2.5
4
1B
Yohandy Morales
0.332
0.308
+0.0
5
CF
Jacob Young
0.314
0.265
+8.5
6
2B
Jorbit Vivas
0.295
0.241
+3.3
7
C
Harry Ford
0.289
0.262
-1.6
8
LF
Andrew Pinckney
0.326
0.306
+1.8
9
SS
Nasim Nuñez
0.268
0.236
+8.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.2
framing-0.6
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.1
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Harry Ford
FRV-1.6
framing-0.4
blocking-0.8
throwing-0.4
PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs HOU · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
117
113(-4)
114
Location+
97
101(+4)
98
Pitching+
114
117(+4)
113
botStf
57
59(+2)
57
botCmd
55
59(+4)
57
botOvr
58
58(+1)
56
SIERA
2.96
4.02(+1.06)
3.41
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.31
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
WSH · Jackson Kent
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs SD · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
86
89(+2)
88
Location+
94
98(+4)
94
Pitching+
84
86(+2)
84
botStf
49
50(+1)
49
botCmd
49
52(+3)
50
botOvr
46
48(+2)
46
SIERA
5.66
5.21(-0.45)
5.72
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.18
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Richard Lovelady (4.91)
PHI
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jhoan Duran
CLOSER
CL
1.53
34.4
4.1
0.94
30/0/35
stable
Jonathan Bowlan
SETUP
SU
3.22
30.9
6.3
0.93
2/13/2
stable
José Alvarado
SETUP
MR
3.65
26.7
10.0
0.85
1/15/3
stable
Brooks Raley
SETUP
MR
3.85
23.6
8.3
0.89
1/16/5
stable
Orion Kerkering
SETUP
SU
3.95
23.4
12.7
0.94
2/17/5
stable
Tim Mayza
OPENER
MR
3.10
24.9
5.9
1.15
0/1/9
stable
Chase Shugart
MR
LR
4.91
26.7
8.9
1.13
0/0/10
stable
Tanner Banks
MR
MR
5.45
22.6
8.4
1.04
0/2/6
stable
Alex McFarlane
unknown
MR
3.23
22.0
8.5
—
0/4/0
—
WSH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brad Lord
SETUP
MR
4.41
21.1
9.2
2.15
1/6/4
stable
Richard Lovelady
OPENER
MR
5.40
18.5
14.4
0.92
4/9/11
ramping down
Will Dion
MR
SU
4.10
28.0
7.9
1.79
0/0/6
ramping down
Riley Cornelio
MR
MR
4.18
25.0
17.7
2.04
0/0/2
ramping down
Yovanny Cruz
MR
MR
4.55
23.4
14.9
1.44
0/2/1
insufficient data
Erik Tolman
unknown
MR
2.42
25.6
11.6
—
2/1/0
—
Jared Simpson
unknown
LR
3.35
28.6
21.4
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Sinclair
unknown
MR
4.03
22.7
13.6
—
1/0/0
—
Luis Perales
unknown
MR
8.67
24.3
16.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.