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today's slate

MIA @ AZ

Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 825034past slate · free

refreshed 266h 29m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 29%

wind

3 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sandy AlcantaraRHP · MIA	Corbin BurnesRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	3.91	4.40
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.322
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.002	-0.020
xERA 2025	4.64	3.85
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.305
Outs/TB 25-26	1.99	2.32
FIP 25-26	4.15	3.93
kwERA 25-26	4.09	3.80
K% 25-26	18.0%	23.4%
BB% 25-26	7.1%	10.1%
IP 25+26 combined	374.7	67.3
ERA actual 2026	3.78	0.00
ERA (L4)	5.79	—
WHIP (L4)	1.50	—
K% (L4)	9.6%	—
BB% (L4)	7.7%	—
IP/gm (L4)	5.83	—
L4 window	08/19→09/08 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.49	—

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.49

Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.305
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.278
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.395
Cutter—+2.10xwOBA 0.301
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.277
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.199
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.279

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.862

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+17.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.328	—	-2.9
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.352	—	+0.4
3	2B	Xavier Edwards	0.313	—	-2.5
4	RF	Griffin Conine	0.368	—	-1.8
5	SS	Otto Lopez	0.327	—	+10.1
6	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.308	—	+4.2
7	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.292	—	+3.4
8	C	Joe Mack	0.289	—	+10.1
9	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.285	—	-3.9

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.911

Σ match

2.897

Σ FRV

+35.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.349	0.340	+1.6
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.346	0.347	+4.1
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.359	0.364	+7.3
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.326	0.315	+11.5
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.341	0.331	+4.6
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.293	0.298	+3.9
7	1B	Tim Tawa	0.314	0.312	-0.7
8	DH	Pavin Smith	0.255	0.259	+1.3
9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.328	0.331	+1.5

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.1
framing+5.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+4.4

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.3
framing+4.8
blocking+1.1
throwing+1.4

MIA · Sandy Alcantara

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs NYM · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-08. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 53 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 5.77

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 102 · botStf 54 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 4.17

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Corbin Burnes: no recent outing on file.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.51)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.47]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.34)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Pete Fairbanks	CLOSER	CL	4.52	31.3	11.0	0.92	19/2/26	stable
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.94	25.0	12.7	0.98	3/16/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.33	28.7	10.8	1.06	1/24/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	LR	3.05	23.2	14.1	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.28	15.8	12.4	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.39	18.4	10.4	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	MR	4.83	25.0	6.4	0.87	1/9/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	5.25	14.8	15.7	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.06	20.9	11.6	—	0/2/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.26	32.3	6.0	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.75	28.2	8.8	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.88	19.0	4.7	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.42	24.6	6.5	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.66	16.0	4.6	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.01	21.2	10.2	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.57	35.5	16.1	—	0/1/0	—
Derek Law	unknown	MR	2.98	14.7	5.9	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 MIA · 8 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

7 R

12H · 2HR · 2BB · 13K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.605 · K% 31.7

Their pitching

8.3 IP · 8 ER · 10 K · relief 3.3 IP · 6 arms

AZ

8 R

11H · 3HR · 4BB · 10K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.390 · SLGe 0.629 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 13 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Jakob Marsee (CF) · 3-4 | HR, 3B, RBIHR · 3 H · 8 TB
Javier Sanoja (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 3B, 3 RBIHR · 7 TB

tough nights

Otto Lopez (SS) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Lars Nootbaar (LF) · 3-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR · 3 H
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 2-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Jordan Lawlar (CF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR