Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 824629past slate · free
refreshed 269h 5m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 51%
wind
11 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
partly cloudy
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Reynaldo LópezRHP · ATL
David PetersonLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.81
5.01
xwOBA 2026
0.335
0.341
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.006
0.000
xERA 2025
10.73
4.61
xwOBA 2025
0.465
0.331
Outs/TB 25-26
1.82
1.98
FIP 25-26
4.54
3.77
kwERA 25-26
4.09
4.10
K% 25-26
20.5%
20.2%
BB% 25-26
9.6%
9.4%
IP 25+26 combined
81.3
300.0
ERA actual 2026
4.13
5.28
ERA (L4)
6.86
5.21
WHIP (L4)
1.73
1.84
K% (L4)
22.2%
23.9%
BB% (L4)
8.9%
13.0%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
4.75
L4 window
07/11→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
88 (−3)
90 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.28 (−0.48)
4.95 (+0.51)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.11
-0.71
away arsenal — ATL
RV/100 -0.11
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.363
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.334
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.232
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 -0.71
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.429
4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.328
Slider—+1.40xwOBA 0.253
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—-2.90xwOBA 0.318
away · ATL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.810
Σ match
3.072
Σ FRV
+12.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.362
0.403
-4.4
2
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.362
0.396
+0.0
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.355
0.387
+9.3
4
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.281
0.309
-3.0
5
CF
Michael Harris II
0.340
0.361
+10.8
6
LF
Mauricio Dubón
0.305
0.337
+4.0
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.300
0.320
-1.2
8
C
Sean Murphy
0.276
0.299
-1.1
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.229
0.261
-2.2
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.936
Σ match
3.153
Σ FRV
+53.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.374
0.409
+26.8
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.341
0.382
+7.3
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.340
+2.0
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.321
0.331
+5.4
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.316
0.337
+5.2
6
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.324
0.339
+8.3
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.330
0.363
-1.8
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.290
0.314
+0.3
9
C
Carson Kelly
0.310
0.339
+0.4
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.1
framing-1.0
blocking+0.7
throwing-0.7
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.4
framing+1.0
blocking+1.6
throwing-2.3
ATL · Reynaldo López
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs TB · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
85(-6)
88
Location+
100
84(-16)
91
Pitching+
90
74(-16)
82
botStf
44
46(+2)
44
botCmd
54
50(-4)
50
botOvr
50
45(-5)
46
SIERA
4.77
4.36(-0.41)
4.28
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-21 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.63
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · David Peterson
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs MIL · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
91(+2)
90
Location+
100
92(-8)
96
Pitching+
93
88(-5)
89
botStf
52
51(-0)
49
botCmd
50
43(-7)
46
botOvr
50
47(-3)
46
SIERA
4.44
4.90(+0.46)
4.95
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.33
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.35R / inningband [0.29–0.41]
0.082 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Victor Mederos (3.87)
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.32)
ATL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Raisel Iglesias
CLOSER
CL
3.42
25.6
7.6
1.04
32/0/29
stable
Dylan Lee
SETUP
SU
2.11
30.0
6.4
0.97
0/30/1
stable
Didier Fuentes
SETUP
SU
2.49
31.5
7.3
1.20
3/16/4
ramping down
Dylan Dodd
SETUP
MR
3.80
26.6
7.9
1.18
1/14/4
ramping down
Brent Suter
OPENER
MR
3.66
20.2
6.9
1.54
0/3/13
stable
Victor Mederos
MR
MR
3.10
21.8
9.0
1.87
1/1/4
ramping up
Ray Kerr
unknown
MR
3.24
19.6
2.0
—
0/1/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.42
24.1
9.3
0.88
3/0/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.93
31.3
13.4
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
3.94
25.6
8.6
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.90
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
4.96
16.3
7.3
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
3.97
21.7
10.6
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.56
19.2
7.1
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
10
3 ATL · 7 CHC
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
ATL
3 R
8H · 1HR · 5BB · 9K · 20LOB
OBPe 0.351 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 24.3
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 7 ER · 4 K · relief 5.0 IP · 2 arms
CHC
7 R
10H · 1HR · 5BB · 4K · 19LOB
OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.485 · K% 10.5
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
ATL · standout lines
big nights
Mike Yastrzemski (LF) · 1-1 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
tough nights
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Matt Olson (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Ozzie Albies (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
CHC · standout lines
big nights
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, 4 RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB · 4 RBI