Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 824465past slate · free
refreshed 269h 1m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 37%
wind
7 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN
xERA 2026
3.03
6.45
xwOBA 2026
0.270
0.380
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.003
0.000
xERA 2025
2.71
3.51
xwOBA 2025
0.258
0.292
Outs/TB 25-26
2.49
1.86
FIP 25-26
2.50
4.47
kwERA 25-26
2.18
3.52
K% 25-26
31.3%
22.2%
BB% 25-26
4.4%
6.5%
IP 25+26 combined
335.0
246.3
ERA actual 2026
2.84
5.12
ERA (L4)
2.77
7.50
WHIP (L4)
1.04
1.94
K% (L4)
28.4%
20.0%
BB% (L4)
3.9%
10.0%
IP/gm (L4)
6.50
4.50
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
114 (−4)
105 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.95 (+0.10)
4.41 (−0.35)
Arsenal RV/100
1.04
-1.09
away arsenal — LAD
RV/100 1.04
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.291
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.313
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.263
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.203
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -1.09
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.482
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.290
Changeup—-1.40xwOBA 0.373
away · LAD vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.157
Σ match
3.566
Σ FRV
-2.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Tommy Edman
0.311
0.358
+1.0
2
SS
Mookie Betts
0.335
0.401
+7.3
3
C
Will Smith
0.382
0.462
-0.2
4
RF
Kyle Tucker
0.327
0.384
-7.1
5
LF
Teoscar Hernández
0.331
0.423
-6.1
6
2B
Miguel Rojas
0.304
0.351
+2.0
7
3B
Max Muncy
0.350
0.421
+1.9
8
1B
Enrique Hernández
0.275
0.343
-1.1
9
DH
Josue De Paula
0.542
0.422
+0.0
home · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.863
Σ match
2.568
Σ FRV
-15.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.310
0.275
-1.5
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.373
0.353
+4.1
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.350
0.304
-4.6
4
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.333
0.303
-7.3
5
DH
Eugenio Suárez
0.299
0.262
-6.3
6
2B
Juan Brito
0.292
0.272
-2.0
7
LF
JJ Bleday
0.342
0.305
-1.9
8
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.298
0.271
+4.2
9
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.266
0.223
-0.6
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Will Smith
FRV-0.2
framing-1.3
blocking+0.7
throwing+0.4
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-7.3
framing-9.2
blocking+3.2
throwing-1.3
LAD · Tarik Skubal
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs CIN · 7.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
118
112(-6)
114
Location+
106
102(-4)
107
Pitching+
122
112(-10)
119
botStf
58
56(-2)
58
botCmd
60
64(+4)
60
botOvr
61
60(-1)
61
SIERA
2.85
2.88(+0.03)
2.95
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.99
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Nick Lodolo
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs LAD · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
101(-5)
105
Location+
90
82(-8)
87
Pitching+
93
82(-11)
88
botStf
49
45(-5)
45
botCmd
53
46(-8)
52
botOvr
51
43(-7)
48
SIERA
4.77
4.31(-0.46)
4.41
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.93
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.67)
LAD
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Tanner Scott
CLOSER
CL
2.21
31.5
5.6
0.94
22/12/21
stable
Edgardo Henriquez
SETUP
SU
2.50
29.3
10.3
1.05
2/11/5
stable
Blake Treinen
SETUP
MR
3.33
24.8
9.7
0.79
1/6/5
stable
Alex Vesia
SETUP
MR
3.35
30.3
14.2
0.76
3/20/6
stable
Jack Dreyer
MR
MR
3.46
28.9
8.5
1.01
2/11/9
stable
Evan Phillips
MR
MR
4.19
28.1
6.7
1.00
1/7/3
stable
Brock Stewart
MR
MR
4.24
22.7
10.2
1.06
1/7/2
stable
Seth Halvorsen
MOP_UP
MR
6.14
15.7
13.4
0.90
0/2/4
stable
Justin Wrobleski
SP
LR
4.29
20.1
5.6
6.02
0/0/1
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.52
24.5
6.3
0.91
23/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.54
27.6
15.0
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.81
24.1
13.0
0.95
2/19/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.77
18.9
9.5
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.00
19.3
13.3
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.76
31.2
13.8
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.6
7.1
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.57
23.5
10.0
1.62
2/3/2
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.