Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 824386past slate · free
refreshed 269h 7m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 45%
wind
4 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
partly cloudy
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
-0.11 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_
opener / bulk pattern
CWS: Sean Newcomb opens → bulk: José Urquidy· predicted bulk based on 2/50 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Sean NewcombLHP · opener · CWS
José UrquidyRHP · bulk · CWS
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE
xERA 2026
3.88
3.41
3.80
xwOBA 2026
0.304
0.286
0.301
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.034
0.075
-0.008
xERA 2025
3.88
8.62
4.30
xwOBA 2025
0.306
0.429
0.321
Outs/TB 25-26
2.49
1.52
2.18
FIP 25-26
2.95
4.38
3.94
kwERA 25-26
3.64
4.21
3.09
K% 25-26
23.0%
16.4%
29.0%
BB% 25-26
8.3%
6.5%
9.8%
IP 25+26 combined
176.7
31.3
336.7
ERA actual 2026
2.77
5.28
3.78
ERA (L4)
1.35
5.54
4.05
WHIP (L4)
1.05
1.54
1.20
K% (L4)
34.6%
6.7%
45.2%
BB% (L4)
15.4%
8.3%
9.5%
IP/gm (L4)
1.67
3.25
5.00
L4 window
08/14→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/08 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (−2)
97 (−2)
106 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.34 (−0.11)
5.44 (+0.48)
2.35 (−0.77)
Arsenal RV/100
1.21
-1.34
0.30
away arsenal · BULK José Urquidy — CWS
RV/100 -1.34
Changeup—-3.90xwOBA 0.272
4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.368
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.234
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.235
home arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.30
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.222
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.310
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.265
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.427
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.405
away · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.935
Σ match
2.867
Σ FRV
+12.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.342
0.339
-8.9
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.315
0.300
-1.2
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.379
0.364
-3.7
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.342
0.340
-2.6
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.309
0.314
-1.6
6
CF
Tristan Peters
0.317
0.311
+9.5
7
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.304
0.287
+9.7
8
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.296
0.274
+10.5
9
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.331
0.336
+1.2
home · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.869
Σ match
2.609
Σ FRV
+15.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.322
0.300
+7.3
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.326
0.300
+0.9
3
DH
Chase DeLauter
0.344
0.306
+1.7
4
RF
Jo Adell
0.325
0.298
-8.1
5
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.307
0.285
-3.0
6
LF
Angel Martínez
0.306
0.267
+2.9
7
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.338
0.312
-2.5
8
C
Patrick Bailey
0.308
0.277
+5.5
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.293
0.265
+11.1
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.2
framing-1.3
blocking-0.9
throwing+0.9
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+5.5
framing+4.3
blocking-1.6
throwing+2.9
CWS · José Urquidy
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
95(-4)
97
Location+
108
117(+10)
110
Pitching+
104
104(-0)
105
botStf
48
46(-2)
48
botCmd
61
67(+6)
58
botOvr
57
61(+4)
53
SIERA
4.96
5.95(+0.99)
5.44
Last 3 outings: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.91
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Gavin Williams
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs DET · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
102(-3)
106
Location+
105
107(+2)
111
Pitching+
109
111(+2)
116
botStf
57
60(+3)
58
botCmd
55
53(-3)
53
botOvr
57
56(-1)
55
SIERA
3.12
2.39(-0.73)
2.35
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.75
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.46]
0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Jordan Hicks (3.78)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.12)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
2.87
22.6
8.7
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.77
32.5
8.8
1.33
8/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.08
22.5
6.6
0.98
8/9/8
stable
Chris Murphy
OPENER
MR
3.57
24.3
10.7
1.05
1/1/6
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.80
28.5
15.0
0.91
1/8/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.02
22.1
7.6
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.35
38.2
13.2
—
0/1/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.38
35.3
8.2
1.05
36/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.80
37.2
14.2
0.78
1/24/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.33
25.0
6.9
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.69
22.5
9.3
0.86
1/28/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.24
22.3
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
1.85
40.0
8.0
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.49
26.0
9.7
1.33
0/2/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.10
20.9
4.5
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.66
18.2
7.3
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.