Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SD @ COL

Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 824308past slate · free
refreshed 268h 23m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 19%
wind
5 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
3%
overcast
park
COL
open · HP→CF 0°
CFHP1B3BCROSS
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricCasey MizeRHP · SDTomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL
xERA 20263.496.70
xwOBA 20260.2890.386
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.004-0.025
xERA 20253.665.81
xwOBA 20250.2980.366
Outs/TB 25-261.871.51
FIP 25-263.765.37
kwERA 25-263.454.25
K% 25-2622.1%15.0%
BB% 25-265.8%5.5%
IP 25+26 combined268.3294.7
ERA actual 20263.705.30
ERA (L4)6.759.00
WHIP (L4)1.331.84
K% (L4)15.4%16.1%
BB% (L4)5.1%6.5%
IP/gm (L4)4.334.75
L4 window08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified08/23→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)——
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)——
Arsenal RV/1000.09-0.83

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.09
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.268
  • Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.322
  • Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.258
  • Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.359
  • Slurve—-3.80xwOBA 0.274

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.83
  • Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.309
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.414
  • Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.447
  • Cutter—-2.60xwOBA 0.480
  • Sweeper—-1.30xwOBA 0.342
  • Slider—-2.90xwOBA 0.325
  • Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.335

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.914
Σ match
3.534
Σ FRV
+39.6
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1RFFernando Tatis Jr.0.3760.448+5.3
2LFDustin Harris0.3210.356+0.5
33BManny Machado0.3370.423+6.2
41BTy France0.3350.400+8.9
5CFJackson Merrill0.3470.432+8.8
6DHLuis Campusano0.3370.402-3.0
7SSXander Bogaerts0.3180.394+4.7
82BJake Cronenworth0.2680.339-1.7
9CFreddy Fermin0.2750.339+10.0

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.765
Σ match
2.560
Σ FRV
+4.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1LFJake McCarthy0.3210.297-0.8
22BConnor Norby0.3050.276-1.2
3CHunter Goodman0.3180.302-2.0
41BTJ Rumfield0.3350.303+5.5
5CFCole Carrigg0.3110.280+1.1
63BKyle Karros0.3370.313+0.6
7RFMickey Moniak0.2780.257+0.4
8DHAdael Amador0.2810.268+0.4
9SSEzequiel Tovar0.2790.265+0.3

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin
  • FRV+10.0
  • framing+3.4
  • blocking+2.1
  • throwing+4.5

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman
  • FRV-2.0
  • framing+0.3
  • blocking-0.9
  • throwing-1.5

SD · Casey Mize

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs WSH · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 115 · Pitching+ 101 · botStf 43 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 4.13

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 85 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 94 · botStf 48 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 6.28

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Tomoyuki Sugano

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs NYY · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 117 · Pitching+ 104 · botStf 46 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 4.37

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 92 · botStf 47 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 4.37

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.35–0.49]
0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.43)
COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.49R / inningband [0.45–0.53]
0.115 R/PA · 0.163 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.73)

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL1.0048.39.51.0436/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3430.57.31.163/25/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.4222.47.81.400/8/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.6627.16.61.092/14/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9215.97.81.170/4/14stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.2326.413.41.351/9/5ramping down
David MorganMRMR4.2423.513.61.220/3/5stable
Randy VásquezSPLR4.3015.06.84.830/2/0ramping down
Griffin CanningSPMR4.7522.810.44.240/1/0ramping down

COL

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Jordan RomanoCLOSERCL3.7223.713.00.7915/1/13stable
Jaden HillSETUPMR4.3022.013.70.832/13/4stable
Juan MejiaSETUPSU4.5819.513.71.104/9/16stable
Brennan BernardinoOPENERSU3.6517.36.00.861/13/7stable
Jimmy HergetOPENERMR5.4920.111.70.993/10/10stable
Zach AgnosSWINGMR4.5714.69.02.282/1/10stable
Blas CastañoMRLR4.7917.97.52.070/0/2stable
Mark ManfrediunknownMR2.6826.014.0—0/0/0—
Nick FrassounknownMR4.3021.98.2—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
15
8 SD · 7 COL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SD

8 R

13H · 2HR · 3BB · 8K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.553 · K% 19.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 2 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

COL

7 R

14H · 1HR · 4BB · 2K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.409 · SLGe 0.650 · K% 4.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
  • Manny Machado (3B) · 1-5 | HR, RBI, RHR
  • Ty France (1B) · 3-5 | 2B, K, RBI3 H · 4 TB
  • Jackson Merrill (CF) · 3-5 | K, RBI, R3 H
tough nights
  • Luis Campusano (DH) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

big nights
  • Jake McCarthy (LF) · 2-5 | 3B, 2B, 2 RBI5 TB
  • Connor Norby (2B) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 RBI, R4 TB
  • Hunter Goodman (C) · 2-3 | 3B, 2B, BB5 TB
  • Cole Carrigg (CF) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Mickey Moniak (RF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks