Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 823656past slate · free
refreshed 269h 3m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Target Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
60°F
humidity 92%
wind
12 mph
out to LF
precip
44%
light drizzle
park
MIN
open · HP→CF 73°
wind impact on total
+0.18 R/Gminor cross
Minor wind cross: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Will WarrenRHP · NYY
Dean KremerRHP · MIN
xERA 2026
4.49
4.62
xwOBA 2026
0.325
0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.008
0.016
xERA 2025
4.58
3.88
xwOBA 2025
0.330
0.306
Outs/TB 25-26
1.79
1.83
FIP 25-26
4.10
4.30
kwERA 25-26
3.61
3.72
K% 25-26
23.5%
20.9%
BB% 25-26
8.6%
6.9%
IP 25+26 combined
304.7
243.3
ERA actual 2026
4.05
5.65
ERA (L4)
2.45
6.38
WHIP (L4)
1.23
1.64
K% (L4)
26.1%
19.3%
BB% (L4)
7.6%
10.8%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
4.58
L4 window
08/19→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−4)
92 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.53 (−0.71)
5.24 (+0.98)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.62
-0.58
away arsenal — NYY
RV/100 -0.62
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.320
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.352
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.359
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.264
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.293
home arsenal — MIN
RV/100 -0.58
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.390
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.248
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.281
Sinker—-2.30xwOBA 0.468
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.386
away · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.934
Σ match
3.323
Σ FRV
+13.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.375
0.418
-4.2
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.338
0.372
+9.6
3
RF
Aaron Judge
0.403
0.461
-1.2
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.353
0.384
+1.4
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.331
0.382
-2.5
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.265
0.295
+0.2
7
3B
Ryan McMahon
0.301
0.351
+1.8
8
C
Austin Wells
0.288
0.335
+6.7
9
2B
José Caballero
0.280
0.325
+1.3
home · MIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.086
Σ match
3.011
Σ FRV
-16.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.315
0.334
-11.0
2
3B
Brooks Lee
0.275
0.301
-0.7
3
2B
Kody Clemens
0.337
0.335
-2.1
4
C
Ryan Jeffers
0.357
0.366
-4.2
5
DH
Josh Bell
0.333
0.338
-1.0
6
LF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.607
0.435
+0.1
7
1B
Victor Caratini
0.318
0.311
+0.5
8
SS
Ryan Kreidler
0.289
0.310
+2.2
9
CF
Walker Jenkins
0.255
0.280
+0.0
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+6.7
framing+6.2
blocking+2.0
throwing-1.4
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Ryan Jeffers
FRV-4.2
framing-0.7
blocking-0.1
throwing-3.4
NYY · Will Warren
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs COL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
98(-6)
100
Location+
104
110(+6)
112
Pitching+
110
108(-1)
114
botStf
57
58(+1)
57
botCmd
57
54(-3)
57
botOvr
58
55(-3)
57
SIERA
4.24
2.89(-1.35)
3.53
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.84
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIN · Dean Kremer
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs DET · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
91(+0)
92
Location+
94
104(+11)
98
Pitching+
87
97(+10)
91
botStf
46
44(-1)
44
botCmd
48
54(+7)
52
botOvr
46
50(+4)
49
SIERA
4.26
5.52(+1.26)
5.24
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.79
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.55]
0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.29)
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.47)
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.60
27.7
6.9
1.10
34/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.29
30.0
7.8
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.70
17.6
10.8
0.91
1/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
5.81
11.1
5.8
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.78
20.8
9.8
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.71
17.2
9.2
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.03
26.2
11.9
—
0/2/0
—
Bradley Hanner
unknown
MR
10.78
26.9
3.8
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
7.43
13.2
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.56
21.0
12.9
1.12
22/6/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.38
35.0
9.5
0.94
5/19/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.80
21.8
12.8
0.94
1/12/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.10
19.1
11.4
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.22
20.9
8.2
1.31
4/22/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.75
25.8
9.2
1.04
0/6/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
3.84
22.5
4.4
1.00
1/8/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.36
24.5
10.5
1.46
2/1/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.