Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 823575past slate · free
refreshed 269h 6m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 48%
wind
9 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
clear
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
-0.22 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.22 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL
Jonah TongRHP · NYM
xERA 2026
4.40
3.69
xwOBA 2026
0.322
0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.003
-0.003
xERA 2025
4.27
4.96
xwOBA 2025
0.320
0.342
Outs/TB 25-26
1.74
1.82
FIP 25-26
4.75
4.51
kwERA 25-26
4.19
3.93
K% 25-26
18.5%
23.2%
BB% 25-26
8.4%
11.0%
IP 25+26 combined
198.3
33.7
ERA actual 2026
3.71
4.80
ERA (L4)
4.70
6.00
WHIP (L4)
1.35
1.58
K% (L4)
16.3%
20.3%
BB% (L4)
8.2%
11.9%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
4.00
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
05/27→09/07 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (−0)
95 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.88 (+0.27)
4.91 (−0.65)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.16
0.38
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.16
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.339
Split-Finger—-1.40xwOBA 0.290
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.266
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.375
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.324
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.38
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.360
Changeup—+3.20xwOBA 0.131
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.407
away · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.773
Σ match
2.858
Σ FRV
-1.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.301
0.296
-8.2
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.395
0.396
-3.6
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.318
0.310
+0.8
4
3B
Coby Mayo
0.327
0.331
-2.0
5
2B
Jackson Holliday
0.293
0.304
-2.5
6
DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.345
0.329
+2.2
7
RF
Heston Kjerstad
0.218
0.285
-0.3
8
CF
Colton Cowser
0.316
0.360
+7.7
9
C
Carlos Narváez
0.260
0.249
+4.2
home · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.987
Σ match
3.088
Σ FRV
+3.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.333
0.341
+0.6
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.413
0.434
-4.4
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.329
0.337
-2.4
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.334
0.342
+7.6
5
DH
Jared Young
0.314
0.322
+0.0
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.305
0.322
-6.9
7
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.322
0.332
+6.9
8
1B
Brett Baty
0.312
0.320
+0.2
9
C
Francisco Alvarez
0.325
0.336
+1.4
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Carlos Narváez
FRV+4.2
framing+1.6
blocking+3.1
throwing-0.5
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Francisco Alvarez
FRV+1.4
framing+2.4
blocking-1.6
throwing+0.6
BAL · Brandon Young
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs CLE · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
97(+0)
97
Location+
105
105(-0)
112
Pitching+
101
97(-3)
106
botStf
48
48(+1)
48
botCmd
55
53(-2)
59
botOvr
54
53(-1)
57
SIERA
4.61
6.14(+1.53)
4.88
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.29
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Jonah Tong
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs MIA · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
92(-6)
95
Location+
93
91(-2)
89
Pitching+
92
86(-6)
86
botStf
52
51(-1)
51
botCmd
48
52(+4)
49
botOvr
49
47(-2)
47
SIERA
5.56
2.62(-2.94)
4.91
Last 3 outings: 2026-05-27 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.20
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Jonathan Pintaro (4.04)
BAL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Grant Wolfram
SETUP
MR
2.74
26.8
6.8
0.80
1/12/3
stable
Yennier Cano
SETUP
SU
2.75
22.2
5.8
0.74
3/13/6
stable
Anthony Nunez
SETUP
MR
3.62
26.6
11.0
1.12
3/7/7
stable
Andrew Kittredge
SETUP
CL
3.86
18.6
5.4
0.87
9/9/11
stable
Rico Garcia
SETUP
CL
3.94
26.3
8.1
0.93
8/18/16
stable
Josh Walker
MR
MR
3.30
23.3
7.8
1.20
1/4/3
ramping down
Alex Hoppe
MR
MR
3.42
24.2
10.1
1.14
1/5/13
stable
Cam Sanders
MR
MR
3.54
28.2
15.3
1.00
3/1/5
stable
Codi Heuer
MR
MR
3.72
13.0
10.9
1.21
0/1/2
ramping down
Luis De León
unknown
MR
5.16
19.0
9.5
—
0/0/0
—
NYM
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Kodai Senga
BULK
CL
5.79
25.8
14.4
3.39
7/0/1
ramping down
Austin Warren
OPENER
MR
4.25
26.0
11.2
1.35
0/1/9
stable
Tobias Myers
OPENER
MR
4.71
17.8
6.1
1.77
2/3/5
stable
Daniel Duarte
MR
MR
3.34
25.9
6.5
1.67
2/6/2
insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro
MR
MR
4.81
22.6
11.3
2.47
0/2/2
ramping up
Nate Lavender
unknown
SU
1.53
30.5
6.8
—
0/9/0
—
Jack Weisenburger
unknown
MR
2.28
20.0
6.7
—
0/0/0
—
Dedniel Núñez
unknown
SU
4.05
24.1
0.0
—
0/3/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
3
2 BAL · 1 NYM
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
BAL
2 R
9H · 1HR · 1BB · 12K · 15LOB
OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 32.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms
NYM
1 R
6H · 1HR · 5BB · 8K · 16LOB
OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 21.6
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
BAL · standout lines
big nights
Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
tough nights
Dylan Beavers (LF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
NYM · standout lines
big nights
A.J. Ewing (CF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
tough nights
Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K