Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 823006past slate · free
refreshed 269h 7m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 7:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 43%
wind
8 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
+0.15 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Busch's open bowl — summer south winds slightly aid HR; spring north winds suppress_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Landen RouppRHP · SF
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL
xERA 2026
3.72
3.54
xwOBA 2026
0.298
0.291
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.005
0.033
xERA 2025
4.24
—
xwOBA 2025
0.319
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.22
2.00
FIP 25-26
3.81
4.01
kwERA 25-26
4.07
4.17
K% 25-26
21.7%
20.4%
BB% 25-26
10.5%
10.2%
IP 25+26 combined
257.3
30.7
ERA actual 2026
4.00
4.11
ERA (L4)
2.11
4.57
WHIP (L4)
1.17
1.48
K% (L4)
12.4%
18.8%
BB% (L4)
13.5%
8.3%
IP/gm (L4)
5.33
5.42
L4 window
08/20→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (+1)
96 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.64 (+1.10)
4.59 (−0.08)
Arsenal RV/100
0.49
-0.50
away arsenal — SF
RV/100 0.49
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.390
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.239
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.257
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.287
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.198
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 -0.50
4-Seam Fastball—-2.10xwOBA 0.362
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.248
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.277
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.158
away · SF vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.579
Σ match
2.557
Σ FRV
-0.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Jonah Cox
0.259
0.241
+2.0
2
1B
Bryce Eldridge
0.354
0.357
+1.7
3
2B
Shay Whitcomb
0.270
0.271
-0.3
4
DH
Turner Hill
0.316
0.313
-1.0
5
3B
Brett Harris
0.311
0.306
+0.2
6
RF
Scott Bandura
0.209
0.268
—
7
C
Andrew Knizner
0.295
0.278
-3.8
8
LF
Grant McCray
0.310
0.292
-2.2
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.255
0.230
+2.6
home · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.917
Σ match
2.843
Σ FRV
+8.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Thomas Saggese
0.314
0.319
-0.2
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.331
0.319
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.375
0.380
+5.2
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.343
0.347
-8.2
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.372
0.332
+0.2
6
LF
Joshua Báez
0.316
0.307
-2.6
7
3B
Nolan Gorman
0.279
0.263
+0.5
8
SS
Masyn Winn
0.298
0.289
+15.6
9
CF
Nathan Church
0.289
0.288
+2.2
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Andrew Knizner
FRV-3.8
framing-2.0
blocking-0.7
throwing-1.2
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV+0.2
framing+0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.2
SF · Landen Roupp
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs STL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
97(-1)
99
Location+
105
90(-14)
99
Pitching+
104
92(-12)
101
botStf
48
47(-2)
49
botCmd
55
51(-4)
53
botOvr
53
47(-6)
52
SIERA
4.54
6.31(+1.76)
5.64
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.31
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Quinn Mathews
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs SF · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
96(-1)
96
Location+
102
104(+2)
97
Pitching+
98
101(+4)
94
botStf
49
47(-2)
49
botCmd
51
56(+5)
51
botOvr
51
52(+1)
50
SIERA
4.67
4.95(+0.28)
4.59
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.43
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.47R / inningband [0.37–0.58]
0.111 R/PA · 0.158 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.