Monday · September 14, 2026·full·gamePk 822765past slate · free
refreshed 267h 56m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 7:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
65°F
humidity 62%
roof
likely closed
wind irrelevant
precip
0%
clear
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone roof_closed
Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Troy MeltonRHP · DET
José SorianoRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
3.69
4.46
xwOBA 2026
0.297
0.324
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.013
-0.027
xERA 2025
3.64
4.04
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.312
Outs/TB 25-26
2.29
2.35
FIP 25-26
4.21
3.82
kwERA 25-26
3.88
4.06
K% 25-26
20.0%
21.8%
BB% 25-26
7.3%
10.6%
IP 25+26 combined
153.7
332.0
ERA actual 2026
2.42
3.48
ERA (L4)
5.70
4.94
WHIP (L4)
1.35
1.39
K% (L4)
13.3%
17.5%
BB% (L4)
4.8%
8.7%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.92
L4 window
08/21→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
101 (+0)
96 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.67 (+0.37)
4.17 (−0.12)
Arsenal RV/100
0.58
0.58
away arsenal — DET
RV/100 0.58
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.342
Cutter—+2.80xwOBA 0.277
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.292
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.224
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.347
Curveball—+1.70xwOBA 0.235
home arsenal — TOR
RV/100 0.58
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.371
Curveball—+1.50xwOBA 0.270
4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.379
Split-Finger—+1.20xwOBA 0.254
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.262
away · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.904
Σ match
3.019
Σ FRV
+4.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Kevin McGonigle
0.354
0.375
-0.1
2
2B
Gleyber Torres
0.325
0.336
+0.2
3
DH
Riley Greene
0.372
0.396
-5.7
4
C
Dillon Dingler
0.339
0.340
+12.2
5
LF
Brett Callahan
0.299
0.312
-1.0
6
CF
Max Clark
0.323
0.326
+2.4
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.309
0.325
-6.3
8
RF
Zach McKinstry
0.285
0.290
+10.8
9
3B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.298
0.319
-8.2
home · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.695
Σ match
2.616
Σ FRV
+32.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.312
0.307
+3.4
2
DH
George Springer
0.306
0.310
-0.3
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.334
0.314
+6.6
4
C
Alejandro Kirk
0.308
0.306
+9.9
5
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.287
0.281
+7.1
6
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.329
0.312
-3.0
7
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.274
0.256
+15.8
8
LF
Josh Smith
0.284
0.285
-3.5
9
2B
Ernie Clement
0.261
0.245
-3.2
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+12.2
framing+6.7
blocking+2.9
throwing+2.6
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Alejandro Kirk
FRV+9.9
framing+7.2
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.8
DET · Troy Melton
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs MIN · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
99(-1)
101
Location+
100
109(+9)
106
Pitching+
102
111(+9)
107
botStf
53
55(+2)
54
botCmd
55
58(+3)
56
botOvr
54
57(+3)
56
SIERA
4.30
5.30(+1.00)
4.67
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.55
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · José Soriano
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs ATH · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
98(+1)
96
Location+
105
115(+10)
114
Pitching+
105
112(+7)
110
botStf
56
52(-4)
52
botCmd
51
58(+7)
57
botOvr
55
59(+4)
58
SIERA
4.29
2.69(-1.60)
4.17
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.14
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.