TEX @ AZ

Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 825033past slate · free
refreshed 297h 6m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
101°F
humidity 32%
wind
7 mph
out to CF
precip
1%
clear
park
AZ
retractable · HP→CF 23°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricCal QuantrillRHP · TEXEduardo RodriguezLHP · AZ
xERA 20263.914.34
xwOBA 20260.3050.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.029-0.027
xERA 20255.774.51
xwOBA 20250.3650.328
Outs/TB 25-261.841.90
FIP 25-264.604.14
kwERA 25-264.084.09
K% 25-2617.5%19.2%
BB% 25-266.4%8.3%
IP 25+26 combined220.3327.3
ERA actual 20262.892.55
ERA (L4)2.161.52
WHIP (L4)0.801.14
K% (L4)24.5%22.7%
BB% (L4)3.2%10.3%
IP/gm (L4)6.255.92
L4 window08/23→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/21→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)88 (−1)96 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)3.55 (−0.95)4.40 (−0.47)
Arsenal RV/1000.850.77

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.85
  • Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.284
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.296
  • Split-Finger—+0.10xwOBA 0.264
  • Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.429
  • Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.246
  • Slider—+4.10xwOBA 0.229

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.77
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.321
  • Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.279
  • Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.349
  • Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.345
  • Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.392

away · TEX vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.848
Σ match
2.990
Σ FRV
+10.2
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BJustin Foscue0.3310.343+2.4
2SSCorey Seager0.3500.366-1.5
33BJosh Jung0.3470.371-4.0
41BJake Burger0.3170.350+4.6
5RFBrandon Nimmo0.3480.356-5.2
6LFWyatt Langford0.3170.321+3.0
7CFEzequiel Duran0.3050.318+13.7
8CElias Díaz0.2720.276+0.4
9DHDanny Jansen0.2610.288-3.3

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.930
Σ match
2.945
Σ FRV
+27.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1LFLars Nootbaar0.3480.344+1.6
22BKetel Marte0.3470.341+3.9
3DHGabriel Moreno0.3610.366+7.6
4SSGeraldo Perdomo0.3260.317+11.3
5RFCorbin Carroll0.3420.330+4.6
63BNolan Arenado0.2930.308+3.5
71BTim Tawa0.3130.324-0.6
8CJames McCann0.2880.308-6.6
9CFJordan Lawlar0.3120.306+2.0

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz
  • FRV+0.4
  • framing-0.5
  • blocking+0.2
  • throwing+0.7

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

James McCann
  • FRV-6.6
  • framing-5.4
  • blocking+0.0
  • throwing-1.0

TEX · Cal Quantrill

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+8991(+2)88
Location+110119(+10)116
Pitching+98111(+13)103
botStf4548(+3)45
botCmd5661(+5)58
botOvr5357(+4)53
SIERA4.504.62(+0.12)3.55

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.60

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9294(+2)96
Location+109104(-5)104
Pitching+10297(-5)99
botStf4547(+2)47
botCmd5957(-2)59
botOvr5452(-2)54
SIERA4.874.19(-0.68)4.40

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.43

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.47]
0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.56)
AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.47]
0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.34)

TEX

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Jacob LatzCLOSERCL2.6030.08.31.2828/3/26stable
Jakob JunisSETUPSU3.7516.46.11.126/17/9stable
Chase SilsethSETUPMR4.0625.613.80.850/15/7stable
Tyler AlexanderOPENERMR2.7920.46.50.954/12/11stable
Robert GarciaMRSU3.1923.316.30.890/2/1stable
Robby AhlstromMRMR5.0521.28.10.820/6/3stable
Trevor WilliamsunknownMR3.9927.19.4—0/1/0—
Jordan MontgomeryunknownLR4.6319.45.6—0/0/0—

AZ

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Brandyn GarciaSETUPCL2.2932.36.10.835/16/6stable
Juan MorilloSETUPCL2.7528.28.80.923/18/9stable
Jonathan LoáisigaSETUPMR2.8819.04.70.931/10/11stable
Kevin GinkelSETUPSU3.4224.66.50.933/11/5stable
Taylor ClarkeSETUPMR3.7415.74.71.000/13/6stable
Dennis SantanaSETUPMR5.0521.510.30.953/5/22stable
Justin MartinezunknownMR2.5835.516.1—0/1/0—
Derek LawunknownLR2.9914.75.9—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
13
7 TEX · 6 AZ
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

TEX

7 R

10H · 1HR · 1BB · 10K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.282 · SLGe 0.378 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ

6 R

12H · 2HR · 2BB · 6K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.583 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights
  • Corey Seager (SS) · 3-5 | HR, 3 RBI, 2 RHR · 3 H
tough nights
  • Jake Burger (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
  • Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Elias Díaz (C) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

AZ · standout lines

big nights
  • Gabriel Moreno (DH) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
  • Geraldo Perdomo (SS) · 3-4 | K, R3 H
  • Nolan Arenado (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 3 RBIHR
tough nights
  • James McCann (C) · 0-40-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks