Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 825033past slate · free
refreshed 297h 6m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Chase Field
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
101°F
humidity 32%
wind
7 mph
out to CF
precip
1%
clear
park
AZ
retractable · HP→CF 23°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Cal QuantrillRHP · TEX
Eduardo RodriguezLHP · AZ
xERA 2026
3.91
4.34
xwOBA 2026
0.305
0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.029
-0.027
xERA 2025
5.77
4.51
xwOBA 2025
0.365
0.328
Outs/TB 25-26
1.84
1.90
FIP 25-26
4.60
4.14
kwERA 25-26
4.08
4.09
K% 25-26
17.5%
19.2%
BB% 25-26
6.4%
8.3%
IP 25+26 combined
220.3
327.3
ERA actual 2026
2.89
2.55
ERA (L4)
2.16
1.52
WHIP (L4)
0.80
1.14
K% (L4)
24.5%
22.7%
BB% (L4)
3.2%
10.3%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
5.92
L4 window
08/23→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
88 (−1)
96 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.55 (−0.95)
4.40 (−0.47)
Arsenal RV/100
0.85
0.77
away arsenal — TEX
RV/100 0.85
Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.284
4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.296
Split-Finger—+0.10xwOBA 0.264
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.429
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.246
Slider—+4.10xwOBA 0.229
home arsenal — AZ
RV/100 0.77
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.321
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.279
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.349
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.345
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.392
away · TEX vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.848
Σ match
2.990
Σ FRV
+10.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Justin Foscue
0.331
0.343
+2.4
2
SS
Corey Seager
0.350
0.366
-1.5
3
3B
Josh Jung
0.347
0.371
-4.0
4
1B
Jake Burger
0.317
0.350
+4.6
5
RF
Brandon Nimmo
0.348
0.356
-5.2
6
LF
Wyatt Langford
0.317
0.321
+3.0
7
CF
Ezequiel Duran
0.305
0.318
+13.7
8
C
Elias Díaz
0.272
0.276
+0.4
9
DH
Danny Jansen
0.261
0.288
-3.3
home · AZ vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.930
Σ match
2.945
Σ FRV
+27.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Lars Nootbaar
0.348
0.344
+1.6
2
2B
Ketel Marte
0.347
0.341
+3.9
3
DH
Gabriel Moreno
0.361
0.366
+7.6
4
SS
Geraldo Perdomo
0.326
0.317
+11.3
5
RF
Corbin Carroll
0.342
0.330
+4.6
6
3B
Nolan Arenado
0.293
0.308
+3.5
7
1B
Tim Tawa
0.313
0.324
-0.6
8
C
James McCann
0.288
0.308
-6.6
9
CF
Jordan Lawlar
0.312
0.306
+2.0
defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)
Elias Díaz
FRV+0.4
framing-0.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.7
defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)
James McCann
FRV-6.6
framing-5.4
blocking+0.0
throwing-1.0
TEX · Cal Quantrill
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs SEA · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
91(+2)
88
Location+
110
119(+10)
116
Pitching+
98
111(+13)
103
botStf
45
48(+3)
45
botCmd
56
61(+5)
58
botOvr
53
57(+4)
53
SIERA
4.50
4.62(+0.12)
3.55
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.60
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs HOU · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
94(+2)
96
Location+
109
104(-5)
104
Pitching+
102
97(-5)
99
botStf
45
47(+2)
47
botCmd
59
57(-2)
59
botOvr
54
52(-2)
54
SIERA
4.87
4.19(-0.68)
4.40
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.43
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.47]
0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.56)
AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.47]
0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.34)
TEX
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jacob Latz
CLOSER
CL
2.60
30.0
8.3
1.28
28/3/26
stable
Jakob Junis
SETUP
SU
3.75
16.4
6.1
1.12
6/17/9
stable
Chase Silseth
SETUP
MR
4.06
25.6
13.8
0.85
0/15/7
stable
Tyler Alexander
OPENER
MR
2.79
20.4
6.5
0.95
4/12/11
stable
Robert Garcia
MR
SU
3.19
23.3
16.3
0.89
0/2/1
stable
Robby Ahlstrom
MR
MR
5.05
21.2
8.1
0.82
0/6/3
stable
Trevor Williams
unknown
MR
3.99
27.1
9.4
—
0/1/0
—
Jordan Montgomery
unknown
LR
4.63
19.4
5.6
—
0/0/0
—
AZ
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brandyn Garcia
SETUP
CL
2.29
32.3
6.1
0.83
5/16/6
stable
Juan Morillo
SETUP
CL
2.75
28.2
8.8
0.92
3/18/9
stable
Jonathan Loáisiga
SETUP
MR
2.88
19.0
4.7
0.93
1/10/11
stable
Kevin Ginkel
SETUP
SU
3.42
24.6
6.5
0.93
3/11/5
stable
Taylor Clarke
SETUP
MR
3.74
15.7
4.7
1.00
0/13/6
stable
Dennis Santana
SETUP
MR
5.05
21.5
10.3
0.95
3/5/22
stable
Justin Martinez
unknown
MR
2.58
35.5
16.1
—
0/1/0
—
Derek Law
unknown
LR
2.99
14.7
5.9
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.