Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 824952past slate · free
refreshed 297h 12m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Sutter Health Park
gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 35%
wind
9 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
ATH
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.06 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Bryce MillerRHP · SEA
Jacob LopezLHP · ATH
xERA 2026
3.46
3.51
xwOBA 2026
0.288
0.290
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.018
0.046
xERA 2025
5.30
3.64
xwOBA 2025
0.352
0.297
Outs/TB 25-26
1.77
1.89
FIP 25-26
4.70
4.65
kwERA 25-26
3.72
3.68
K% 25-26
21.8%
24.4%
BB% 25-26
7.8%
10.1%
IP 25+26 combined
192.7
203.7
ERA actual 2026
4.22
4.78
ERA (L4)
8.31
3.13
WHIP (L4)
1.90
1.13
K% (L4)
20.2%
24.0%
BB% (L4)
15.5%
7.3%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
5.75
L4 window
08/18→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
104 (−2)
104 (+6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.76 (+1.72)
5.10 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/100
0.04
-0.30
away arsenal — SEA
RV/100 0.04
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.317
Split-Finger—+0.60xwOBA 0.218
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.350
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.333
Sweeper—+2.10xwOBA 0.221
Cutter—-3.90xwOBA 0.427
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.172
home arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -0.30
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.237
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.275
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.343
Changeup—-6.50xwOBA 0.406
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.399
away · SEA vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.986
Σ match
2.719
Σ FRV
-22.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
J.P. Crawford
0.324
0.279
-7.4
2
LF
Randy Arozarena
0.346
0.315
-6.8
3
RF
Dominic Canzone
0.352
0.345
+0.2
4
DH
Cal Raleigh
0.312
0.278
-4.0
5
CF
Julio Rodríguez
0.335
0.316
-0.3
6
1B
Josh Naylor
0.315
0.291
+3.5
7
2B
Michael Arroyo
0.397
0.335
+0.3
8
3B
Weston Wilson
0.263
0.254
-7.8
9
C
Jhonny Pereda
0.342
0.305
-0.4
home · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.713
Σ match
2.635
Σ FRV
-22.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Henry Bolte
0.317
0.298
+4.3
2
1B
Jeff McNeil
0.306
0.283
-1.6
3
3B
Zack Gelof
0.306
0.289
-0.3
4
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.320
0.308
-10.2
5
DH
Max Muncy
0.292
0.297
-5.3
6
2B
Donovan Walton
0.339
0.313
-5.9
7
LF
Carlos Cortes
0.304
0.304
-6.3
8
C
Brian Serven
0.292
0.298
+0.5
9
SS
Alika Williams
0.237
0.245
+2.2
defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)
Jhonny Pereda
FRV-0.4
framing-1.1
blocking+0.4
throwing+0.2
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Brian Serven
FRV+0.5
framing-0.6
blocking+1.3
throwing-0.2
SEA · Bryce Miller
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs TEX · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
108(+2)
104
Location+
110
99(-11)
100
Pitching+
115
113(-3)
108
botStf
54
55(+2)
53
botCmd
57
54(-3)
55
botOvr
59
58(-2)
57
SIERA
4.04
4.06(+0.02)
5.76
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.40
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATH · Jacob Lopez
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs TOR · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
104(+6)
104
Location+
102
100(-1)
102
Pitching+
99
100(+1)
103
botStf
49
50(+1)
50
botCmd
52
60(+8)
54
botOvr
51
58(+7)
55
SIERA
5.00
7.17(+2.18)
5.10
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.31
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
15
7 SEA · 8 ATH
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
SEA
7 R
12H · 2HR · 6BB · 6K · 18LOB
OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.556 · K% 14.0
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 8 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms
ATH
8 R
9H · 3HR · 6BB · 7K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.425 · SLGe 0.656 · K% 17.5
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 5.3 IP · 6 arms
SEA · standout lines
big nights
Randy Arozarena (LF) · 3-5 | 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB · 4 RBI
ATH · standout lines
big nights
Zack Gelof (3B) · 2-3 | HR, 2 BB, 2 RBIHR
Lawrence Butler (RF) · 2-4 | 2 HR, HBP, K2-HR night · 8 TB · 4 RBI
Alika Williams (SS) · 2-3 | 2 2B, BB, R4 TB
tough nights
Henry Bolte (CF) · 0-3 | BB, HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K