Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 824869past slate · free
refreshed 299h 39m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Truist Park
gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
83°F
humidity 67%
wind
6 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
wind impact on total
+0.13 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Andrew PainterRHP · PHI
Grant HolmesRHP · ATL
xERA 2026
4.55
4.74
xwOBA 2026
0.327
0.333
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.016
-0.025
xERA 2025
—
4.55
xwOBA 2025
—
0.329
Outs/TB 25-26
1.72
2.08
FIP 25-26
4.77
4.50
kwERA 25-26
3.96
4.04
K% 25-26
20.1%
21.7%
BB% 25-26
8.1%
10.3%
IP 25+26 combined
110.3
252.7
ERA actual 2026
5.71
3.46
ERA (L4)
3.24
1.35
WHIP (L4)
0.96
0.90
K% (L4)
26.0%
17.1%
BB% (L4)
5.0%
7.9%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
5.00
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/20→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
106 (+4)
91 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.79 (−0.70)
3.46 (−1.27)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.46
0.35
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.46
4-Seam Fastball—-2.10xwOBA 0.400
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.332
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.307
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.411
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Changeup—+3.80xwOBA 0.160
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.229
home arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.35
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.293
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.384
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.407
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.418
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.249
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.230
away · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.905
Σ match
3.175
Σ FRV
-15.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.363
0.389
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.291
0.318
-7.8
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.388
0.446
-11.5
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.305
0.330
+10.3
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.323
0.339
-5.0
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.327
0.356
+5.6
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.305
0.344
-5.7
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.319
0.348
+0.8
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.284
0.305
-1.4
home · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.835
Σ match
2.973
Σ FRV
+12.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.361
+11.2
2
DH
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.362
0.368
-4.4
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.354
0.363
+8.8
4
C
Drake Baldwin
0.364
0.390
-0.2
5
LF
Mauricio Dubón
0.304
0.315
+4.5
6
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.283
0.303
-3.1
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.300
0.313
-1.4
8
RF
Mike Yastrzemski
0.309
0.311
-1.5
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.220
0.248
-1.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.8
framing-0.2
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.1
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Drake Baldwin
FRV-0.2
framing+2.6
blocking+0.3
throwing-3.1
PHI · Andrew Painter
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs HOU · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
107(+4)
106
Location+
102
108(+6)
107
Pitching+
105
115(+9)
111
botStf
55
59(+5)
58
botCmd
54
58(+5)
58
botOvr
55
59(+4)
60
SIERA
4.49
4.01(-0.48)
3.79
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.13
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATL · Grant Holmes
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs PHI · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
93(+6)
91
Location+
100
100(+0)
99
Pitching+
90
96(+6)
92
botStf
49
51(+2)
49
botCmd
52
55(+2)
49
botOvr
51
54(+3)
49
SIERA
4.73
3.84(-0.90)
3.46
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.07
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.