Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 824708past slate · free
refreshed 297h 12m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Fenway Park
gametime 3:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 97%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
90%
light rain
park
BOS
open · HP→CF 46°
wind impact on total
-0.14 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Noah CameronLHP · KC
Payton TolleLHP · BOS
xERA 2026
3.96
2.69
xwOBA 2026
0.307
0.255
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.010
0.030
xERA 2025
4.10
4.67
xwOBA 2025
0.314
0.333
Outs/TB 25-26
2.17
2.09
FIP 25-26
3.87
3.43
kwERA 25-26
3.79
2.84
K% 25-26
21.1%
28.5%
BB% 25-26
7.7%
7.2%
IP 25+26 combined
298.7
153.3
ERA actual 2026
3.93
3.15
ERA (L4)
2.45
4.09
WHIP (L4)
1.09
1.18
K% (L4)
21.3%
34.4%
BB% (L4)
9.0%
6.7%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
5.50
L4 window
08/21→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−0)
116 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.78 (−0.59)
2.54 (−1.12)
Arsenal RV/100
0.37
0.65
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.37
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.370
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.314
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.279
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.226
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.315
Sinker—-2.50xwOBA 0.405
home arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.65
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.252
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.304
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.258
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.146
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.348
away · KC vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.553
Σ match
2.413
Σ FRV
+6.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Nick Loftin
0.291
0.254
-0.6
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.383
0.332
+16.2
3
DH
Jac Caglianone
0.356
0.291
-8.1
4
1B
Salvador Perez
0.313
0.305
-9.1
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.311
0.265
+5.8
6
RF
Matthew Lugo
0.112
0.249
+0.2
7
LF
Isaac Collins
0.297
0.257
+0.9
8
C
Luke Maile
0.196
0.213
+2.4
9
CF
Tyler Tolbert
0.294
0.246
-1.1
home · BOS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.892
Σ match
2.868
Σ FRV
+24.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.350
0.358
-0.1
2
DH
Jahmai Jones
0.343
0.330
-1.6
3
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.353
0.349
+4.8
4
1B
Willson Contreras
0.374
0.364
+1.3
5
C
Adley Rutschman
0.335
0.336
+11.0
6
SS
Trevor Story
0.249
0.243
-1.2
7
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.288
0.278
+5.1
8
2B
Nick Sogard
0.317
0.314
+2.8
9
CF
Nate Eaton
0.283
0.298
+1.9
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Luke Maile
FRV+2.4
framing+2.4
blocking+0.3
throwing-0.3
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.0
framing+6.8
blocking+0.6
throwing+3.7
KC · Noah Cameron
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs AZ · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
97(+1)
96
Location+
105
111(+6)
108
Pitching+
104
106(+2)
106
botStf
50
44(-5)
48
botCmd
53
58(+4)
57
botOvr
52
53(+1)
54
SIERA
4.37
3.18(-1.19)
3.78
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.30
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BOS · Payton Tolle
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs BAL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
114
124(+10)
116
Location+
100
111(+12)
109
Pitching+
112
128(+16)
123
botStf
56
55(-1)
56
botCmd
58
62(+4)
58
botOvr
60
62(+2)
60
SIERA
3.66
0.44(-3.22)
2.54
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.68
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.53]
0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.