Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 824628past slate · free
refreshed 298h 57m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 48%
wind
11 mph
in from RF
precip
2%
overcast
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.38 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.38 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT
Matthew BoydLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.02
4.68
xwOBA 2026
0.309
0.331
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.003
-0.019
xERA 2025
3.66
3.74
xwOBA 2025
0.298
0.301
Outs/TB 25-26
2.26
2.16
FIP 25-26
3.83
3.93
kwERA 25-26
4.00
3.70
K% 25-26
21.8%
20.6%
BB% 25-26
10.1%
6.4%
IP 25+26 combined
173.3
289.0
ERA actual 2026
4.25
4.03
ERA (L4)
4.35
4.07
WHIP (L4)
1.16
1.15
K% (L4)
24.7%
18.8%
BB% (L4)
8.2%
7.3%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
6.08
L4 window
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
93 (−8)
95 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.24 (−0.85)
3.97 (−0.43)
Arsenal RV/100
0.06
0.09
away arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.06
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.330
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.293
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.281
Sinker—+1.30xwOBA 0.346
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.289
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.217
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.09
4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.314
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.235
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.227
away · PIT vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.860
Σ match
2.908
Σ FRV
-14.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.301
0.303
-4.7
2
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.354
0.374
+1.9
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.360
0.381
-3.2
4
1B
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.340
0.344
-0.3
5
2B
Nick Gonzales
0.327
0.340
-9.6
6
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.319
0.322
-3.0
7
RF
Jake Mangum
0.283
0.285
+2.0
8
3B
Jared Triolo
0.288
0.299
-0.4
9
C
Henry Davis
0.288
0.260
+2.5
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.912
Σ match
2.856
Σ FRV
+52.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.371
0.366
+26.9
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.341
0.349
+7.9
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.312
+1.4
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.321
0.311
+6.1
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.314
0.302
+5.2
6
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.324
0.311
+7.7
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.332
0.330
-1.8
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.290
0.280
+0.3
9
C
Miguel Amaya
0.289
0.295
-1.0
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.5
framing-0.0
blocking+0.6
throwing+1.9
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Miguel Amaya
FRV-1.0
framing+0.0
blocking-0.6
throwing+0.1
PIT · Bubba Chandler
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs CWS · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
94(-8)
93
Location+
102
120(+19)
108
Pitching+
105
111(+6)
101
botStf
58
50(-9)
50
botCmd
54
65(+12)
57
botOvr
57
61(+4)
54
SIERA
5.09
1.90(-3.19)
4.24
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.89
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Matthew Boyd
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs MIL · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
95(-1)
95
Location+
108
103(-5)
108
Pitching+
101
95(-6)
100
botStf
47
48(+1)
47
botCmd
56
57(+1)
56
botOvr
52
52(-0)
51
SIERA
4.40
3.66(-0.74)
3.97
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.32)
PIT
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Gregory Soto
CLOSER
SU
3.39
27.9
9.9
0.99
14/12/21
stable
Luke Weaver
SETUP
SU
2.88
26.9
6.8
1.05
1/20/4
stable
Yohan Ramírez
SETUP
MR
3.55
27.1
12.8
1.28
2/9/8
stable
Carmen Mlodzinski
BULK
MR
3.61
17.9
7.5
3.98
2/5/3
ramping down
Khristian Curtis
BULK
LR
4.95
12.3
14.0
5.00
0/0/0
insufficient data
Mason Montgomery
OPENER
CL
2.24
38.0
9.2
0.97
12/9/7
stable
Brandon Eisert
OPENER
MR
3.67
28.0
7.3
1.05
0/2/5
stable
Lake Bachar
OPENER
MR
4.57
25.5
10.2
1.53
2/1/10
stable
Wilber Dotel
MR
MR
3.04
23.6
9.5
2.13
0/3/1
stable
Antwone Kelly
MR
LR
5.39
12.0
8.0
2.17
0/0/1
insufficient data
Camilo Doval
MOP_UP
MR
4.53
23.1
12.7
0.90
1/7/10
stable
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.43
24.0
8.7
0.88
3/0/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.93
31.3
13.4
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
3.94
25.6
8.6
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.97
29.1
9.2
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
4.96
16.3
7.3
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
3.97
21.7
10.6
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.57
19.1
6.8
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.