Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 824225past slate · free
refreshed 301h 5m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Comerica Park
gametime 12:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
78°F
humidity 69%
wind
9 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
DET
open · HP→CF 150°
wind impact on total
+0.13 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Gabriel HughesRHP · COL
Jackson JobeRHP · DET
xERA 2026
3.56
5.04
xwOBA 2026
0.292
0.342
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.028
0.015
xERA 2025
—
4.90
xwOBA 2025
—
0.340
Outs/TB 25-26
1.95
1.79
FIP 25-26
3.81
5.16
kwERA 25-26
4.10
4.49
K% 25-26
19.2%
19.0%
BB% 25-26
8.4%
11.4%
IP 25+26 combined
57.3
77.3
ERA actual 2026
5.81
4.45
ERA (L4)
4.12
3.66
WHIP (L4)
1.37
1.42
K% (L4)
17.4%
20.9%
BB% (L4)
9.3%
11.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
4.92
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
84 (−1)
101 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.56 (−0.24)
4.32 (−0.11)
Arsenal RV/100
0.16
-1.10
away arsenal — COL
RV/100 0.16
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.292
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.358
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.192
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.348
Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.364
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.160
home arsenal — DET
RV/100 -1.10
4-Seam Fastball—-2.20xwOBA 0.443
Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.287
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.259
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.255
Changeup—-4.40xwOBA 0.312
away · COL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.724
Σ match
2.945
Σ FRV
-3.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Jake McCarthy
0.322
0.350
-0.9
2
2B
Adael Amador
0.270
0.304
+0.4
3
SS
Cole Carrigg
0.314
0.331
+1.1
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.334
0.361
+5.9
5
RF
Mickey Moniak
0.279
0.305
+0.4
6
DH
Troy Johnston
0.326
0.360
-2.5
7
3B
Vimael Machín
0.297
0.317
—
8
C
Brett Sullivan
0.284
0.316
-5.3
9
LF
Zac Veen
0.298
0.303
-2.2
home · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.955
Σ match
2.802
Σ FRV
+3.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kevin McGonigle
0.352
0.337
-0.4
2
2B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.300
0.300
-8.3
3
3B
Colt Keith
0.335
0.311
-1.7
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.372
0.346
-5.7
5
C
Dillon Dingler
0.341
0.329
+12.2
6
CF
Max Clark
0.321
0.297
+2.4
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.309
0.304
-6.2
8
RF
Zach McKinstry
0.284
0.265
+10.9
9
SS
John Peck
0.341
0.315
+0.4
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Brett Sullivan
FRV-5.3
framing-4.0
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.3
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+12.2
framing+6.7
blocking+2.8
throwing+2.6
COL · Gabriel Hughes
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs NYY · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
85
89(+4)
84
Location+
105
111(+6)
104
Pitching+
92
95(+3)
89
botStf
49
49(+0)
49
botCmd
53
57(+4)
50
botOvr
52
54(+2)
48
SIERA
4.80
2.12(-2.69)
4.56
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.07
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
DET · Jackson Jobe
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs CLE · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
101(-3)
101
Location+
99
107(+7)
94
Pitching+
105
108(+3)
96
botStf
55
54(-1)
54
botCmd
49
50(+2)
45
botOvr
53
52(-1)
48
SIERA
4.43
2.98(-1.45)
4.32
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.39
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.49R / inningband [0.46–0.52]
0.115 R/PA · 0.163 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.70)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.