LAD @ MIA

Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823815past slate · free
refreshed 298h 12m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
87°F
humidity 72%
wind
9 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
19%
overcast
park
MIA
retractable · HP→CF 40°
CFHP1B3BCROSS
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricEmmet SheehanRHP · LADEury PérezRHP · MIA
xERA 20263.914.10
xwOBA 20260.3050.312
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.034-0.004
xERA 20253.003.23
xwOBA 20250.2710.281
Outs/TB 25-262.052.22
FIP 25-263.913.89
kwERA 25-262.843.40
K% 25-2628.7%26.4%
BB% 25-267.3%9.7%
IP 25+26 combined174.3234.7
ERA actual 20265.083.94
ERA (L4)6.279.18
WHIP (L4)1.342.22
K% (L4)30.1%19.5%
BB% (L4)6.0%14.9%
IP/gm (L4)4.674.17
L4 window07/20→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/22→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)98 (−2)107 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)3.10 (−0.89)6.15 (+1.80)
Arsenal RV/100-0.380.10

away arsenal — LAD

RV/100 -0.38
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.359
  • Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.267
  • Changeup—-1.80xwOBA 0.296
  • Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.246

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.10
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.328
  • Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.341
  • Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.299
  • Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.222
  • Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.296
  • Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.332

away · LAD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.994
Σ match
2.990
Σ FRV
+8.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSMookie Betts0.3350.336+7.8
21BFreddie Freeman0.3690.357+2.0
3DHMax Muncy0.3510.365+1.8
4CWill Smith0.3790.384-0.3
5RFKyle Tucker0.3280.330-7.4
6LFJosue De Paula0.3590.330—
7CFAlex Call0.2820.286+0.9
82BMiguel Rojas0.3060.299+2.0
93BAlex Freeland0.2850.304+1.4

home · MIA vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.870
Σ match
2.880
Σ FRV
+16.2
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1DHKyle Stowers0.3290.320-2.9
2LFHeriberto Hernández0.3530.364+0.4
3SSOtto Lopez0.3280.338+9.9
41BGriffin Conine0.3710.384-1.7
52BXavier Edwards0.3130.321-2.4
6CFJakob Marsee0.3090.297+3.5
73BJavier Sanoja0.2920.285+3.0
8CJoe Mack0.2910.290+10.1
9RFEsteury Ruiz0.2840.281-3.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith
  • FRV-0.3
  • framing-1.4
  • blocking+0.7
  • throwing+0.4

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack
  • FRV+10.1
  • framing+5.7
  • blocking-0.0
  • throwing+4.5

LAD · Emmet Sheehan

Last outing 2026-09-07 vs CIN · 5.2 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+100103(+3)98
Location+106108(+2)102
Pitching+107110(+3)103
botStf5351(-2)50
botCmd5252(+1)48
botOvr5254(+2)49
SIERA3.991.39(-2.60)3.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.12

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Eury Pérez

Last outing 2026-09-07 vs NYM · 4.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+114110(-4)107
Location+9194(+2)81
Pitching+103106(+2)89
botStf5957(-2)55
botCmd5050(-0)47
botOvr5654(-2)50
SIERA4.354.74(+0.40)6.15

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.98

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.12)
MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.40)

LAD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Tanner ScottCLOSERCL2.2431.65.70.9422/12/21stable
Edgardo HenriquezSETUPSU2.4729.710.21.052/10/5stable
Blake TreinenSETUPMR3.3324.89.70.791/6/5stable
Alex VesiaSETUPMR3.3930.214.40.763/19/6stable
Jack DreyerMRMR3.4628.98.51.012/11/9stable
Brock StewartMRMR3.6723.010.31.061/7/2stable
Evan PhillipsMRMR4.1928.16.71.001/7/3stable
Seth HalvorsenMOP_UPMR6.1415.713.40.900/2/4stable
Justin WrobleskiSPLR4.2920.15.66.020/0/1ramping down

MIA

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Pete FairbanksCLOSERCL4.5231.311.00.9219/2/26stable
Calvin FaucherSETUPSU2.9425.012.70.983/16/7stable
Michael PetersenSETUPSU3.3328.710.81.061/24/4stable
Dax FultonBULKLR2.8923.213.72.500/0/3ramping down
Victor VodnikMRMR4.2516.312.41.084/6/12stable
Cade GibsonMRMR4.3918.410.41.280/4/7stable
Tyler ZuberMRMR4.8425.06.40.871/9/5stable
Josh EknessMRMR5.2115.415.40.891/2/2stable
Jack RalstonunknownMR4.3820.512.8—0/2/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
10
4 LAD · 6 MIA
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

LAD

4 R

9H · 1HR · 5BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.390 · SLGe 0.441 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 2.0 IP · 5 arms

MIA

6 R

9H · 1HR · 2BB · 8K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.314 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 22.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

LAD · standout lines

big nights
  • Josue De Paula (LF) · 2-2 | HR, 2B, BBHR
tough nights
  • Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-4 | HBP, K0-for-4
  • Max Muncy (DH) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Kyle Tucker (RF) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4

MIA · standout lines

big nights
  • Agustín Ramírez (PH) · 1-1 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
tough nights
  • Griffin Conine (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks