Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823734past slate · free
refreshed 300h 5m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · American Family Field
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 45%
wind
13 mph
out to CF
precip
21%
overcast
park
MIL
retractable · HP→CF 137°
wind impact on total
neutralnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Chase BurnsRHP · CIN
Robert GasserLHP · MIL
xERA 2026
3.16
4.19
xwOBA 2026
0.276
0.315
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.007
0.012
xERA 2025
3.46
4.96
xwOBA 2025
0.290
0.342
Outs/TB 25-26
2.20
1.81
FIP 25-26
2.99
4.57
kwERA 25-26
2.74
3.73
K% 25-26
30.7%
21.6%
BB% 25-26
8.5%
7.7%
IP 25+26 combined
191.7
97.0
ERA actual 2026
2.73
4.43
ERA (L4)
4.67
4.74
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.42
K% (L4)
32.9%
23.0%
BB% (L4)
6.6%
10.3%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
4.75
L4 window
08/19→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/14→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
112 (−0)
105 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.81 (−0.88)
4.93 (+0.56)
Arsenal RV/100
0.65
-0.40
away arsenal — CIN
RV/100 0.65
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.329
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—-4.90xwOBA 0.407
home arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.40
Sweeper—-1.60xwOBA 0.260
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.266
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.363
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.400
Changeup—-2.80xwOBA 0.383
away · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.794
Σ match
2.948
Σ FRV
-17.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.310
0.328
-1.4
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.373
0.390
+4.1
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.350
0.370
-4.7
4
3B
Eugenio Suárez
0.298
0.307
-6.3
5
DH
Tyler Stephenson
0.332
0.353
-6.8
6
LF
JJ Bleday
0.342
0.360
-1.9
7
2B
Juan Brito
0.303
0.323
-1.3
8
C
Jose Trevino
0.216
0.227
+1.9
9
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.270
0.289
-0.9
home · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.991
Σ match
2.737
Σ FRV
+23.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.356
0.307
+3.9
2
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.342
0.312
+7.5
3
2B
Brice Turang
0.345
0.312
+12.7
4
C
Gary Sánchez
0.344
0.331
-5.4
5
1B
Jake Bauers
0.378
0.359
-9.2
6
DH
Christian Yelich
0.312
0.279
+0.0
7
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.299
0.253
+9.6
8
RF
Luis Lara
0.303
0.310
+2.1
9
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.312
0.274
+2.6
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Jose Trevino
FRV+1.9
framing+1.2
blocking+1.1
throwing-0.4
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
Gary Sánchez
FRV-5.4
framing-2.5
blocking-1.5
throwing-0.2
CIN · Chase Burns
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs LAD · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
112
115(+3)
112
Location+
102
111(+10)
104
Pitching+
114
128(+14)
116
botStf
60
63(+2)
60
botCmd
53
56(+3)
54
botOvr
59
62(+3)
60
SIERA
3.68
1.79(-1.90)
2.81
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.60
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIL · Robert Gasser
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs CHC · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
111(+6)
105
Location+
94
98(+3)
94
Pitching+
97
94(-2)
95
botStf
54
54(-0)
54
botCmd
55
61(+6)
54
botOvr
55
61(+6)
56
SIERA
4.38
4.25(-0.13)
4.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-20 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.84
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.49]
0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.67)
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.44]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.12)
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.61
24.5
6.5
0.91
22/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.54
27.6
15.0
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.82
24.3
13.2
0.95
2/18/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.77
18.9
9.5
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.00
19.3
13.3
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.76
31.2
13.8
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.6
7.1
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.57
23.5
10.0
1.62
2/3/2
stable
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.93
28.8
6.8
0.97
27/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.89
26.2
9.0
0.99
6/20/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.05
30.9
11.0
1.23
2/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.17
21.9
8.6
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.94
21.5
9.8
2.46
5/10/5
ramping down
Garrett Stallings
MR
LR
2.19
27.5
10.0
1.50
1/0/2
insufficient data
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.59
19.3
8.6
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.83
27.1
15.3
1.29
0/5/5
stable
Kyle Harrison
SP
MR
4.03
28.2
6.9
4.92
0/0/0
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.